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Dark Winter
« on: March 11, 2017, 07:20:54 pm »
Dark Winter, by John Casey

[I consider this an error.] p6) One of the longest cycles is that of the ice ages. In between a cycle of every 100,000 or so years of essentially an icebound Earth, we have what are called "intgerglacial warm periods". For the past 11,000 years, we have been living in one of these rare interglacial periods, called the Holocene warm period.6

p14-15) <<Copy graphs.>> Some scholars use 1795-1825 as the DM period. I have chosen to begin the DM at solar cycle 4' (4 prime), discovered by I.G. Usoskin, K. Mursula and G.A. Kovaltsov.2 In their paper "Lost sunspot cycle in the beginning of Dalton Minimum: New evidence and consequences", they make a convincing case that the latter part of cycle 4 was, in fact, a small solar cycle with very low amplitude, hence 4'. I end the DM in the year 1830, which was where the solar cycle 7 began to exceed the three previous low-sunspot cycles, namely 4', 5 and 6. Figure 2-2 shows the cycle 4 with 4' extending from 1793 to 1798.

p18-19) - 1787: The US Constitution ratified by the states.
- 1789: George Washington elected as first president of the United States.
- 1789: The French Revolution begins.
- 1793: Dalton Minimum begins: Solar Cycle 4'.
- 1797: John Adams elected second president of the United States.
- 1801: Thomas Jeffereson elected third president of the United States.
- 1803: Lewis and Clark begin to explore the northwestern United States.
- 1803: The Louisiana Purchase negotiated with France.
- 1807: Robert Fulton launches his steam-powered boat, the Clermont.
- 1809: James Madison elected fourth president of the United States.
- 1811-12: The New Madrid earthquake strikes the Mississippi valley; the first quake occurs on December 16, 1811. It is the most powerful series of earthquakes in North American history - a series of three 8.0 temblors, plus many smaller ones.
- 1812: The War of 1812 between the United States and England begins.
- 1812: Napoleon invades Russia and suffers massive losses because of bitter winter weather.
- 1815: The Mount Tambora volcano erupts, April 5, 10 & 11. It is the largest and deadliest volcanic eruption in recorded history at the time, claiming 90,000 lives.
- 1815: Napoleon suffers loss at Waterloo on June 18.
- 1816: The "Year without a Summer". Bitter cold weather hits New England, and the destructive frost spreads as far south as Pennsylvania.
- 1816: In May, a frost hits from New England down to Virginia, and in June, people go sleighing after a freak snowfall.
- 1816: In August, frosts and snow strike New Hampshire, killing off what few crops still survive. Two months earlier, temperatures had been in the 90s.
- 1816-1823: Hundreds of thousands die, possibly as a result of cholera that spreads from India to New York City, related to regional conditions from Mount Tambora's eruption.
- Thousands die in New England from the cold and after effects, and thousands leave for Indiana and Illinois. The migration may have been a key factor in these areas becoming new states of the newly formed Unisted States of America.
- The combined cold and heavy rain damage of 1816 causes potato, corn and wheat crops to fail across Ireland and England and, along with collateral typhus outbreaks, thousands more die.
- 1817: James Monroe elected fifth president of the United States.
- 1825: John Q. Adams elected sixth president of the United States.
- 1830s: A second wave of cholera strikes Europe, also possibly related to the Mount Tambora eruption. Hundreds of thousands more die, especially in France.

[I consider this dating to be in error.] p24) On the subject of supervolcanoes like Yellowstone, we should not be too concerned, since there are usually tens to hundreds of thousands of years between eruptions. However, if we suddenly see a spike in the number and intensity of earthquakes in the vicinity of the world's supervolcanoes, then everyone should start paying attention.

p28-29) ... the French Revolution was prompted in part by starving peasants.... ... Encycliopedia Britinnica:25 "During the momentous political events of 1788-89, much of the country lay in the grip of a classic subsistence crisis. Bad weather had reduced the grain crops that year by almost one-quarter the normal yield. An unusually cold winter compounded the problem, as frozen rivers halted the transport and milling of flour in many localities." ...
But why had the crops failed? The crops failed because, at the time, there was in place global warming and drought, which I believe was caused by the Bicentennial Cycle, which was then at its peak of warming!
... It appears from my research that the United States of America owes its very existence, in great part, to the natural reaction of the French people during the late 1780s to the side effects of drought and crop loss brought on by the last global warming peak and following extreme cold caused by the global climate changeover of the 206-year Bicentennial Cycle of the Sun! ... The government that eventually came into power would then come to the rescue of the United States in its war against the British in 1812.

Years      Climate Type      Peak/Bottom of Cycle
2020-2045   Cold Era      Bottom: 2031-2037
2070-2090   Warm Era      Peak: 2080-2085*
2110-2150   Cold Era      Bottom: 2130-2137**
2170-2235   Warm Era      Peak: 2180-2211***
*Will be less warm than the period 1990-2010.
**Will be as cold or colder than the period 2031-2037.
***Will be less warm than the period 2080-2085.

[I also consider this an error.] p43) We have comfortably rested atop the temperature curve in the Holocene warm period for about 11,000 years.

p48-49) In this appendix you will see just how many researchers out there are saying we are heading for a cold climate and ... have been saying so for many years. ... Here is the summary ... of how much support I found by early 2007 to corroborate my research for the RC theory:
- Centennial Cycle: 18+ researchers in over 11 papers
- Bicentinnial Cycle: 17+ researchers in over 8 papers
- Both cycles found together: 11+ researchers in over 8 papers
- Temperature correlation with solar minimums: 9+ researchers in over 7 papers
- Predictions of next minimum/coming cold era: 12+ researchers in over 11 papers
... The total list of researchers who can lend credence to one or more elements of my theory may be 200 [or much more].... I just stopped counting after the first hundred....

p49-57) Researchers who have predicted a long-term solar minimum, solar hibernation, or new climate change to a period of long-lasting cold weather based upon solar activity: [16 listed].

p74-146) Now, let us look at the 33 reasons ... that demonstrate why global warming has ended and a new cold climate has begun: ...
<<p76 SSRC error>>
- 2. A major short-term drop in Earth's temperature took place between 2007 and 2008.
- 4. A major decline in global temperatures has started, reinforcing the SSRC prediction for a historic temperature reduction by December 2012.
- 5. A long-term global temperature trend toward a colder climate has been established in Earth's atmosphere.
<<Copy graphs p88-90>>
- 6. There was no growth in Earth's temperatures for 13 years.
- 7. We have been misled by climate change alarmism for over a hundred years because of a narrow view of when climate change occurs and why.
1895-1920s   Global Cooling   3 media sources
1930s      Global Warming   many sources
1950s      Global Cooling   1 source
1960s      Global Warming   1 source
1974-1980s   Global Cooling   4 sources
1988-2000s   Global Warming   many sources

- 8. Cold temperature records are being set, globally.   
- 9. A NASA ocean temperature study has shown declining ocean temperatures.
- 10. A review of ocean temperatures measured by satellites shows a cooling trend.
- 11. Ocean cooling is predicted by a California seal pup study.
- 12. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has started.
p103) 1925-47 Warm; 1948-1975 Cold; 1976-1998 Warm; 1999-2002 Cold; 2003-2007 Warm; 2008-2010 Cold

- 13. Antarctica is getting colder, and its glacial ice sheet is growing....
- 14. The Greenland glacial ice sheet is stable and growing.
- 15. During periods of time in 2009 and 2010, the Arctic sea ice reached its historical average extent.
- 16. The world's mountain glacial ice began to reverse from a predominantly shrinking phase to one of long-term growth beginning around 1998.
- 18. There is a general lack of understanding among US and international science agencies about the real status of glacial ice.

[How much sea level would rise if all melted:]
1. Totals: 70 meters or 230 feet [#1=#2+#3+#4]
2. Antarctica: 63 meters or 206 feet
3. Greenland: 5.6 meters or 18.4 feet
4. Mountain glacieers etc: 1.4 meters or 4.6 feet

- 19. Destructive storms are not growing in number.
p124) In May 2007, the world experienced a record 33.4 days without a tropical cyclone.... This means colder oceans.
- 20. The RC theory predicts another solar hibernation.
- 21. Many scientists say a new cold climate is coming.
- 22. A rare conjunction of solar cycles is taking place.
- 23. Climate change research is poised to begin a new era of highly reliable forecasting based on solar activity.
- 24. NASA says a major solar minimum is coming.
- 25. The surface movement on the Sun "has slowed to a record crawl".
- 26. The solar wind is at a 50-year low.
- 27. The planetary magnetic field strength is at an all-time low.
- 28. The Sun's radio flux density is at an all-time low since record keeping began in the 1950s.
- 29. Cosmic rays from outside the solar system have reached the highest level ever recorded, indicating the Sun's protective envelope around the Earth has never been weaker.
- 30. The Sun is shrinking.
p144) The root causes and energy transfer mechanisms within the Sun are not well understood and still require much research. According to Dr. ... Abdussamatov ... the Sun's radius has been shrinking since 1979 and by 2018 will have been reduced by 81.6 kilometers [Graph shows dRm, km: 8/86: 0; 5/96: -5.1; 7/07?: -35.7; 9/18?: -81.6; source: The Shrinking Sun, Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, August 28, 2006, Solar Physics, Vol. 23, No. 3, 91-100. Out of 695,700 kilometers; that's over 2 kilometers shrinkage per year].
- 31. The northern lights are at a record low.
- 32. The Earth's upper atmosphere is shrinking.
- 33. Solar irradiance is declining.
p148) "Solar irradiance" changes in sync with the 11-year solar cycle and with an average of 1,366 watts per meter squared ... [and] the typical variation in this number [is] about 1.3 watts per meter squared....
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