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Choi NewMad Paper
« on: March 02, 2017, 08:53:38 pm »
NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 1,March 2014. www.ncgt.org 61
SEISMO-ELECTROMAGNETIC ENERGY FLOW OBSERVED IN THE 16 MARCH 2014 M6.7 EARTHQUAKE OFF TARAPACÁ, CHILE
Dong R. CHOI
International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC), Canberra, Australia
dchoi@ievpc.org
- Abstract: The strong M6.7 offshore Tarapacá earthquake in March 2014 was generated by the convergence of two seismo-electromagnetic energies at the junction of two major fault systems. The deep northwestward flow is proven by two precursory intermediate-depth quakes which are linked to the offshore Tarapacá mainshock by Blot’s energy transmigration law. Another energy flow, southward along the continental margin of South America, is verified by the latitude vs year plot of shallow (50 km or less) quakes from 1970 to 2014 (March).
The average speed of the shallow southward-flowing energy along the continental margin is 0.25 km/day (28-year average), whereas the northwestward energy speed (from 128 km to 35 km depths) was an average of 0.34 km/day. The convergence of two energies contributed to enhancing the magnitude of the shallow mainshock (6.7), which was larger than the two foreshocks: 6.4 at 128 km and 6.2 at 214 km. The increased magnitude of shallow mainshocks as compared to deeper foreshocks is observed in many of the past major quakes, which will help forecast future catastrophic earthquakes.
- Keywords: Offshore Tarapacá earthquake, energy transmigration, convergence and flow, surge tectonics
- Introduction
A conspicuous anomaly in total electron content (TEC) appeared in the coastal area of northern Chile in early March 2014 off Tarapacá, Chile. Based on IEVPC’s experience, we considered it to indicate an imminent strong earthquake. The author immediately examined other data: outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), sea surface temperature (SST), cloud images, geology, and earthquake archives. He also conducted Blot’s energy transmigration analysis (Blot, 1976; Grover, 1999) for two intermediate-depth earthquakes that occurred in the southeast of the Tarapacá area in 2009 and 2011. The results of the analysis convinced him of the imminence of a strong quake north of Antofagasta. Because the expected magnitude was around 6.4, which is below the threshold of what IVEPC classifies as a catastrophic geophysical event (CGE, M7.0 or greater), he notified only his IEVPC associates on 3 March without any public announcement.
- As expected, an M6.7 (originally 7.0) mainshock occurred off Tarapacá, about 400 km north of Antofagasta, on 16 March, 13 days after the announcement. The author’s prediction proved to be of almost pinpoint accuracy in terms of epicentre, time and magnitude. A post-mortem analysis of the quake revealed that two energy flows had converged in the offshore Tarapacá area where two major fracture systems meet. Energy flow is a particularly important concept when considering earthquake formation mechanisms and in earthquake prediction. The author briefly describes here some of the new findings, focusing on the energy flow observed in this particular quake.
- 2.Precursory signals and fracture systems
- Before discussing energy flow, I will first summarize some of the precursory signals that appeared prior to the Tarapacá mainshock (see Fig. 1). The OLR trend shows a clear NW-SE trending linear high anomaly, 10-30 W/m2 above average, from 2 to 8 March. The linear trend coincides with a deep fracture zone where two precursory shocks occurred in 2009 and 2011. The fracture zone extends northward into the ocean floor where a deep trench develops.
- Figure 1. Seismo-tectonic map (top), total electron content (lower right), sea surface temperature anomaly (middle left) and outgoing longwave radiation anomaly (bottom left). Anomalies are detected in total electron content and outgoing longwave radiation, but none in sea surface temperature. The offshore Tarapacá quake occurred at the junction of two fault systems. Note two energy flows converging at the mainshock.
- The most outstanding anomaly signal among others is seen in the TEC pattern. It appeared in late February, became conspicuous in early March, peaked on 10 to 11 March, then slightly decreased from 13 to 15 March, before the mainshock on 16 March.
- Sea surface temperature (SST) did not show any particular anomalies during the entire incubation period. This is the stark contrast with other large quakes such as the November 2012 Myanmar quake (NCGT Newsletter no. 65, Editorial, p. 2-4).
Clear earthquake clouds were observed on satellite images (Dundee Satellite Receiving Station; http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/geobrowse/geobrowse.php) on 28 January at 1200 hrs from the nearby trench, 47 days prior to the mainshock. Some limited energy release features are observed beginning in early February, about one month to 40 days prior to the mainshock, mainly from the trench area. On the whole, however, relatively little activity was seen on the satellite images from the region.
- 3. Energy flow
- Two energy flow channels were identified in this prediction exercise. One of them is the northwestward deep flow along a deep-seated fracture system, and the second is a southward flow in the shallow Earth along the continental margin. The former is confirmed by three strong earthquakes lying on a NW-SE fault line: no. 1, M6.2 on 29 Nov. 2009 at 214 km depth; no. 2, M6.4 on 20 June 2011 at 128 km; and no. 3, main shallow shock on 16 March, M6.7 at 35 km (see Fig. 1). This fault is obviously a deep fault zone with its northern extension reaching the Chile Trench. The author (Choi, 2005, fig. 21) recognized a NW-SE trending structural high running through Antofagasta based on various data sources. The NW-SE fault in question is situated on the northern wing of this basement high.
- These three quakes are linked by the energy transmigration (ET) formula (Fig. 2). According to the formula, applied from Nos. 1 to 2, the No. 2 quake shows an approximately seven-month delay in its occurrence. This might be the result of inaccuracies in the depth and locality of quakes, a longer incubation time at the trap before release, or a longer travel distance due to the complex fault system through which the energy travels. On the other hand, the flow from No. 2 to No. 1 occurred almost exactly in conformity with the ET formula.
- The average speed from No. 1 (214 km depth) to No. 2 (128 km depth) quakes is 0.41 km/day, and from No. 2 to No. 3 (from 128 km to 35 km depth) 0.36 km/day.
The shallow southbound flow was calculated by plotting a latitude vs year diagram for M7+ shallow (50 km or shallower) quakes from 1970 to 2014 (Fig. 2). The average speed is 0.25 km/day. A similar trend is also seen in the M6.0+ quake trend in the same area. The energy flow can be disrupted by local energy trap structures which slow down the flow speed, but on the whole, the energy movement indicated in the shift of major quakes with time in a broad corridor is unmistakably traceable. The author also found the same fact in California earthquake patterns (Choi et al., in preparation). Tsunoda (2011) and Tsunoda et al. (2013) described the systematic northward energy flow along the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge to Japan. These observations confirm that constant energy movement is taking place under active tectonic belts, as proposed by surge tectonics (Meyerhoff et al., 1996).
64 NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 1,March 2014. www.ncgt.org
- Figure 2. Latitude vs year plot of M7+ shallow quakes, 50 km or less. An overall southward flow is observed.
- 4. Discussion
- The most significant discovery during the analysis of the offshore Tarapacá quake is the convergence of two energy flows, and their enhancing effect on magnitude. Energy convergence and its magnitude-enhancing effect have been seen in many catastrophic earthquakes, including the 2004 Boxing Day earthquake in Sumatra (Blot and Choi, 2004) and the Great East Japan (Tohoku) Earthquake in March 2011 (Choi, 2011), to name only two. The same phenomenon was observed in the present offshore Tarapacá quake too. In this regard, Grover’s remark (1998) is noteworthy:
“Deep-focus shocks of magnitude 6+ appear to engender great earthquakes of magnitude 7+ and 8+ and accompanying seismic crises when their ‘phenomena’ converge….with convergence even quite small magnitude shocks could be boosted to produce much higher magnitude.”
- We are currently collating energy-transmigration and speed data for various geological and geographic settings. The general trend was discussed in Tsunoda et al. (2013). A comprehensive updated report will be published in the near future.
- 5. Conclusions
- This note presented observations on two energy flow patterns and their convergence, which generated a strong shock off Tarapacá, Chile, in March 2014. This convergence generated a quake of greater magnitude than the two deeper foreshocks that occurred five and three years earlier.
- The Tarapacá quake was predicted 13 days in advance with almost pinpoint accuracy. The prediction was based solely on publicly available data without local monitoring stations. This is mainly thanks to Blot’s ET concept, as well as the IEVPC’s comprehensive data analysis capability, augmented by accumulated know-how and acumen that allow strong quakes to be detected even several years before they occur, and based on an understanding of the significance of various short-term signals. If we had had local monitoring stations, the prediction would have been much more precise and accurate.
- Acknowledgements: The author thanks Fumio Tsunoda for his constructive comments on the manuscript, and other IEVPC associates who contributed to a better understanding of precursory signals. This paper is an outcome of IEVPC’s collective effort. The author also thanks David Pratt for English editing.
- References cited
Blot, C., 1976. Volcanisme et sismicité dans les arcs insulaires. Prévision de ces phénomènes. Géophysique,
v. 13, Orstom, Paris, 206p.
Blot, C. and Choi, D.R., 2004. Recent devastating earthquakes in Japan and Indonesia viewed from the seismic
energy transmigration concept. NCGT Newsletter, no. 33, p. 3-12.
Choi, D.R., 2005. Deep earthquakes and deep-seated tectonic zones: A new interpretation of the Wadati-Benioff
zone. Boll. Soc. Geol. It., vol. spec. 5, p. 79-118.
Choi, D.R., 2010. Blot’s energy transmigration concept applied for forecasting shallow earthquakes; a swarm of
strong deep earthquake in the northern Celebes Sea in July 2010. NCGT Newsletter, no. 56, p. 75-85.
Choi, D.R., 2011. Geological analysis of the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011. NCGT Newsletter,
no. 59, p. 55-68.
Grover, J.C., 1998. Volcanic eruptions and great earthquakes. Advanced warning techniques to master the
deadly science. CopyRight Publishing Co. Pty Ltd., Brisbane. 272p.
Meyerhoff, A.A., Taner, I., Morris, A.E.L., Agocs, W.B., Kamen-Kaye, M., Bhat, M.I., Smoot, N.C. and Choi,
D.R. (Ed., Meyherhoff-Hull, D.), 1996. Surge tectonics: a new hypothesis of global geodynamics. Kluwer
Academic Publishers, 323p.
Tsunoda, F., 2011. The March 2011 Great Offshore Tohoku-Pacific Earthquake from the perspective of the VE
process. NCGT Newsletter, no. 59, p. 69-77.
Tsunoda, F., Choi, D.R. and Kawabe, T., 2013. Thermal energy transmigration and fluctuation. NCGT
Journal, v. 1, no. 2, p. 65-80.
- Postscript: When the new NCGT issue including this paper was just about to be aired, a gigantic M8.0 earthquake hit the same area on 1 April, 2014 with a small tsunami. This is the mainshock, and the 16 March M6.7 quake described in this article is now considered the foreshock. They occurred 15 days apart. After the 16 March foreshock, TEC remained high, SST became high from the late March, but OLR went low.
- The huge magnitude of the mainshock is considered the combined effect of energy convergence and a large trap structure (Precambrian structural high occupying the south of the NW-SE deep fault system). The southward flowing energy along the continental margin had been trapped in this structure, and stored a huge energy. Another energy flow arrived from the southeast along the deep fault played a role as a trigger. We have seen the similar pattern in the March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Energy flow, trap structure, and energy convergence are the keys to understand the mechanism of gigantic earthquakes like the present off Tarapacá quake.

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Re: MF 2/24 NuMadPapr « Reply #4 on: March 01, 2017, 03:38:28 pm »

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4. Paper by Dr. Dong Choi and Mr. John L. Casey

New Madrid Seismic Zone, central USA:
The great 1811-12 earthquakes, their relationship to solar cycles,
and tectonic settings
Dong R. CHOI
Raax Australia Pty Ltd. Dong.Choi@raax.com.au; www.raax.com.au
International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center. dchoi@ievpc.org; www.ievpc.org
John L. CASEY
Space and Science Research Corporation, mail@spaceandscience.net; www.spaceandscience.net
International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center, jcasey@ievpc.org; www.ievpc.org
Abstract: The 1811-1812 New Madrid series of earthquakes were the largest in magnitude (estimated to be M8.0 or greater) in the continental North America in the history. The quakes occurred in the midst of Dalton Solar Minimum (1793-1830). Other major historic earthquakes in the same region also occurred during major solar minimums, or “solar hibernations.” From a tectonic viewpoint, the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is situated on the axis of the N-S American Geanticline or Super Anticline which is Archean in origin. It has been subject to repeated magmatic and tectonic activities in Proterozoic and Phanerozoic – the Caribbean dome (now oceanized to form the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) has been the site for rising thermal energy from the outer core since the Mesozoic. Energy transmigrates northward along the anticlinal axis (or surge channel) and is trapped at the embayment bounded by less permeable Precambrian-Paleozoic basement highs in the north of the New Madrid area. The arrival of a major, prolonged solar low period or “hibernation” in the coming 30 years, which are considered comparable to the Dalton or even Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), increases the likelihood of repeating the 1811-12 class seismic events. Heightened awareness, monitoring of precursory signals, and disaster mitigation planning are required.
Keywords: 1811-12 New Madrid Earthquakes, Dalton Minimum, solar hibernation, N-S American Super Anticline, surge channel, seismic energy transmigration, earthquake-solar cycle anti-correlation
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Introduction
The New Madrid area, mid-Mississippi River, central United State, was rocked by a spate of powerful earthquakes from 1811 to 1812 (Fig. 1). According to the USGS records, there were three main shocks, M7.5, 7.3 and 7.5, on 16 December 1811, 23 January 1812, and 7 February 1812, respectively, with a major aftershock M7.0 on the first day (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1811-1812.php). Other researchers, such as Nuttli (1987) listed six M7.0+ quakes that include two M8.0+ earthquakes. Of them, two largest quakes were considered the greatest earthquakes in continental North America (Johnston and Schweig, 1996).
The sequence of the great earthquakes in the NMSZ has a unique attribute – it occurred in the middle of a major solar low period, Dalton Minimum, 1793 to 1830 (Fig. 2). This prompted the authors to study seismic history of the NMSZ and their relation to solar cycles, together with geological settings of the surrounding region. The rationales of this study are, 1) the arrival of a prolonged solar low period as advocated by Casey (2008, 2012 and 2014), and 2) the well-established reversed correlation between the solar activity cycle and earthquake energy (Choi and Maslov, 2010), and 3) new interpretation of geological structure of the region and seismic energy transmigration mechanism in the Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico-Mississippi River (Choi, 2013; Choi, 2014; Choi et al., 2014).
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Fig. 1. Map of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12. Base map cited from Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc. (http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/1421133/New-Madrid-earthquakes-of-1811-12). Wabash Valley Seismic Zone is added.
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Seismic activity in the NMSZ and solar cycles
Historic records show that the New Madrid region has been subject to repeated seismic activities. Based on artifacts found buried by sand blow deposits and from carbon-14 studies, previous large earthquakes like those of 1811-1812 appear to have happened around 4800BC, 3500BC, 2350 BC, AD300, AD900 and AD1450. In addition, the first known written record of an earthquake felt in the New Madrid Seismic Zone occurred on Christmas Day of 1699. An M6.6 earthquake in 1895 has also been registered (Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone).
Most of the years listed above belong to solar low periods (Figs. 2 and 3): The years 1811-1812 is in the midst of a major solar low period, Dalton Minimum. The year 1699 sits in another major solar low period, Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715. AD1450 corresponds to the lowering period of Spörer Minimum, and another one in 1895, centennial low cycle (1885-1915; Casey, 2008; Fig. 2).
Importantly, all major Earthquakes in the NMSZ since 1400 AD have occurred during these solar low points or solar hibernations.
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Fig. 2. Solar cycle and world volcanic/seismic activities. All of the NMSZ quakes occurred around the middle of the solar low periods. Cited from Choi and Tsunoda, 2011 and Choi, 2013b.
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Fig. 3. History of New Madrid earthquakes compared to solar minimums or “solar hibernations” from 1400-1950 AD. Solar activity deduced from C14 proxy variation. The years of major New Madrid earthquakes are shown in red stars with dates. Source: Casey, Data: Reimar et al., INTCAL04.
The NMSZ quakes and solar cycles indicate their reversed correlation. The anti-correlation between solar cycles and seismic/volcanic activities has been well established by the senior author of this paper with co-workers (Fig. 4; Choi and Maslov, 2010; Choi and Tsunoda, 2011). Casey (2010) also noted that the catastrophic volcanic eruptions had taken place during the solar low periods.
Fig. 4. Anti-correlation between the solar and earthquake cycles (Choi and Maslov, 2010).
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The cause of this anti-correlation awaits further study. One of the feasible explanations was presented by Gregori (2002) who attributed to the Earth’s core being a leaky capacitor or a battery; when solar activity is high, the Earth’s core is charged, whereas when the Sun’s activity is in low phase, the core in turn discharges energy.





Discussion
1) Geological structures responsible for the NMSZ earthquakes

The earthquakes occurred in the NMSZ come from the unique tectonic settings. It is strongly related to the global-scale geological structure; North-South American Geanticline or Super Anticline that runs from South America, via the Caribbean and Mississippi Valley, to the Canadian Shield (Choi, 2013; Figs. 5 and 6). It is a fundamental geological structure formed in the early stage of the Earth’s formation – in Archean. There is another antipodal super anticline that extends from SW Pacific, via SE Asia and South China, to Siberia. These anticlinal structures have influenced the subsequent development of the Earth by repeated magmatic and tectonic activities throughout the Phanerozoic, especially since Mesozoic.
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Fig. 5. Earth’s fundamental structures; two antipodal super anticlines (Choi, 2013a). Note that the Caribbean Sea and the Mississippi Valley are situated on the axis of the anticline. Base map, World magnetic anomaly map, by Korhonen et al., 2007.
In his 2010 and 2014 papers, the senior author argued the origin of the Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico, which developed in the axial part of the anticline and formed the Caribbean dome; the crust in the site where energy rose from the outer core has been oceanized since Mesozoic. The initial basin formation however may go back to Paleozoic time (Pratch, 2008 and 2010). The axial area, being highly fractured and permeable, became a channel of energy flow, or surge channel (Meyerhoff et al., 1996). The thermal seismic energy, derived from the outer core through the Caribbean dome and transmigrated along the surge channel developed under the Mississippi Valley, is responsible for the NMSZ earthquakes (Fig. 6). This assertion is supported by the fact that, along the Pacific coast of Central America, the seismo-volcanic energy which was originated from the deep Caribbean was found to transmigrate northward during the solar low cycles but southward during the rising cycles (Choi, 2014). The energy from the outer core was stronger during the time of solar low phase, as evidenced by the well-established solar cycle-earthquake anti-correlation (Fig. 4).
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Fig. 6. N-S American Geanticline, the NMSZ and deep structure of the North America represented by Precambrian structures (Kosygin et al., 1970). Energy flow direction along the N-S American Geanticlinal axis from Choi (2014), and for California-Mexico from Choi et al. (2014). Note the prevailing NE-SW deep structural trends which seemingly continue into the Pacific Ocean.
A geological map, Fig. 7, well illustrates a Mesozoic embayment developed along the Mississippi Valley. The NMSZ area is the northern end of the Mesozoic basin that covers the present Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. The NMSZ region is surrounded by older, less permeable, Precambrian-Paleozoic rocks – which form a trap structure for thermal seismic energy in the form of liquid and gas. The trap structures were controlled by deep fault systems, which are NE-SW and NW-SE in direction (Johnson and Schweig, 1996).
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3) Arrival of a major, prolonged, solar low period, or solar hibernation.
The correlation of major earthquakes and solar activity, while relatively recently discussed, is nonetheless one of the strongest in terms of climate change and geophysical associations. The initial paper (Casey, 2008) on the regular pattern of climate oscillations linked to solar activity using the Relational Cycle Theory (RC Theory) has demonstrated itself to be among the most successful in climate prediction underscoring the basic reliability of the theory and its associated seven elements of climate change. Subsequently (Casey, 2010) in a preliminary paper, proposed the connection between the RC Theory and major earthquakes and volcanic activity. Others noted above (Choi, Maslov, et al.), have also found the strong relationship between solar activity lows and increased seismic and volcanic activities.
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Fig. 7. Geologic map by Jatskevich et al. (2000) superimposed by tectonic elements and the NMSZ which is located at the northern end of the Mesozoic-Paleogene basin (labelled as K, K1, K2 and ).
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Conclusions
This study revealed several important factual data regarding the strong earthquakes in the NMSZ and their relation to solar cycle. It also presented new interpretation of tectonic settings of the region. They are summarized as follows:
1. The NMSZ developed on the major Precambrian-origin geanticlinal axis where magmatic, thermal, and tectonic activities have been concentrated, particularly since Mesozoic when the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have started to form. This activity is still continuing today.
2. The historic record clearly shows that large seismic events in the NMSZ have occurred during the Sun’s inactive periods. The sequence of 1811-12 quakes is one of them.
3. In the light of the now confirmed start of a prolonged, solar hibernation for the coming 30 years or so, which are comparable to Dalton Minimum or worst case, a Maunder Minimum (“Little Ice Age”), a repeat of the 1811-12 earthquakes should be expected.
4. The window of highest risk for another major New Madrid zone earthquake is between 2017 and 2038.
5. Planning for a repeat of the 1811-1812 series of earthquakes that devastated the region back then should begin immediately. Considerations should include:

a. A US nationwide plan is required based on one or more M8.0+ earthquakes in the NMSZ on the assumption that substantial regional loss of life and massive infrastructure damage will take place on a scale never before witnessed in the USA.
b. This plan should include heightened levels of public education, monitoring of the seismic precursory signals, federal, state and local emergency management exercises and damage mitigation where practicable.
c. Planning should address the real possibility of complete loss of major ground and air
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transportation nodes and routes including substantial long term damage to airport facilities and runways and interstate and city highway systems especially across the Mississippi River.
d. Planning should also include the assumption that major aftershocks will prevent meaningful rebuilding of permanent structures over several months to a year.
e. Should a repeat of a series of quakes take place similar to the 1811-1812 events or even a repeat of the 1895 M6.6 earthquake, the power grid in the central Mississippi region may be unavailable for essential needs of radio and TV communications, emergency management, search and rescue etc for several months to a half year or more.
f. In the case where there may be NMSZ nuclear facilities not designed to withstand a series of M7.5 to M8.0+ earthquakes, a new added risk may exist. All nuclear facilities must be reviewed (if not already done so) to insure they and their back-up power systems for coolant systems etc., can withstand a worst case series of major quakes. Failure to do so could result in multiple instances of the March 11, 2011 Japanese, Fukushima nuclear reactor style catastrophes in the middle of the United States. This could directly affect the safety of all citizens east of the central Mississippi River subject to prevailing winds during the time of the year such a scenario might happen.
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