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582 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, V. 4, No. 4, December 2016. www.ncgt.org
Great deep earthquakes and solar cycles
Dong Choi1 and John Casey2
International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center
1dchoi@ievpc.org, Canberra, Australia
2jcasey@ievpc.org, Orlando, Florida, USA
Abstract: Great deep earthquakes (300 km or deeper with magnitude 7.0 or greater) are considered the first tangible appearance of the Earth’s outer core-derived thermal energy, which later generates a series of shallow earthquakes. Therefore, a right understanding of great deep earthquakes is pivotal in predicting catastrophic earthquakes at the shallow Earth. It is also important to understand Earth’s geodynamic processes and their interaction with other planets, such as the Sun. Historically the great deep earthquakes have occurred sporadically, zero to four per year since 1970 only in some limited areas in the Pacific Ocean and its surroundings. They were almost absent prior to 1984, but suddenly increased in 1990 onwards when the Schwabe (11 year) solar cycle 22 peaked; after which solar activity has been continuing to decline – implying the arrival of a major prolonged solar low cycle or an hibernation stage possibly comparable to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) or the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715); both of which had accompanied historic catastrophic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The great deep earthquake fluctuation is mainly controlled by two combined cycles, the 11-year Schwabe cycle and a longer 22 year Hale cycle, but obviously longer term solar cycles, such as 100 and 206 year cycles, are also affecting. Further study is required. Since 1990 the Earth’s core is considered to have entered an active phase and has been discharging powerful thermal energy into the mantle. The recent spate of unusually strong earthquakes worldwide support this assertion. We expect this trend to continue and strengthen for the coming 20 to 30 years.
Keywords: earthquake-solar cycle anticorrelation, 11-year solar cycle, 22-year solar cycle, great deep earthquake, Eddie Minimum, thermal energy transmigration
(Received on 7 October 2016. Accepted on 26 December 2016)
1. INTRODUCTION
Our studies on the Sun-Earth interaction on the basis of earthquakes/volcanic eruptions and solar cycles have clarified many intriguing relationships between the Sun and the Earth. Choi and Maslov (2010) established a reversed correlation between the solar activity and earthquakes (Fig. 1) after the extensive data analysis and review of published references. Casey (2010) noted that the strongest volcanic and seismic activities in the continental USA in the last 300 to 350 years have occurred during the major solar minimums. Some earlier works such as Simpson (1967) also noted the increased earthquake activity during the solar declining period. The anticorrelation between the Sun and seismic/volcanic activities has been supported by many recent studies by the present Authors and other researchers (Choi and Tsunoda, 2011; Choi et al., 2014; Casey et al., 2016).
An underlying physical mechanism of this Sun and Earth interaction requires further study: Gregori (2002) attributes to Earth’s core being a leaky capacitor or a battery; when solar activity is high, the Earth’s core is charged, whereas when the Sun’s activity is in low phase, the core in turn discharges energy.
Figure 1. Solar cycle (left) and the earthquake-solar cycle anticorrelation (right) for strong, shallow earthquakes.
On the other hand, an improved understanding of earthquake mechanism and precursory signals has led to many successful earthquake predictions by a team of International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center and other colleagues in recent years, as demonstrated in many papers on the September 2015 M8.3 Chile Earthquake (Césped, Choi and Casey, Davidson, Straser et al., Venkatanathan et al., U-Yen, and Wu, - all in NCGT Journal, v. 3, no. 4, p. 383-408, 2015). The April 2016 Kumamoto Japan earthquake was linked to a swarm of deep quakes in 2010 in the Celebes Sea, Philippines (Tsunoda and Choi, 2016). This quake also revealed several critical precursors and was successfully predicted (Cataldi et al., 2016; Hayakawa and Asano, 2016; Wu, 2016).
These successful predictions and improved understanding of earthquake generation mechanisms tell us; 1) important role of deep earthquakes, 300 km or deeper, with magnitude, 7.0 or greater, in generating catastrophic earthquakes at shallow Earth, validating the thermal transmigration concept by Blot (1976) (see also Grover, 1998), and 2) the interaction between planets and Earth, especially the Sun and Earth and their cycles in triggering shallow earthquakes (Kolvankar, 2011; Gregori, 2015; and others).
Because the deep (300 km or deeper) great earthquakes (magnitude 7.0 or greater) are considered the first tangible appearance of the Earth’s outer-core discharged thermal energy, they are considered to directly reflect the activity of the outer core which is intricately interacting with the solar activity and its cycle. We consider the great deep quakes, particularly in the South Fiji –Lau Basins, Southwest Pacific, most sensitively respond to the outer core activity, because the region is the site where thermal plume rises directly from the outer core according to the mantle tomography (Kawakami et al., 1996).
The clarification of the solar cycle and great deep quakes is all the more important today as we have entered a major solar low cycle, which is comparable to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) or Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), or solar hibernation (Casey, 2010 and 2014; Casey et al., 2016), which had accompanied strongest earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
All the earthquake records used in this study come from the IRIS archives (http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/), with reference to the USGS archives for verification. There are some minor discrepancies between them, especially in magnitude assignment.
2. DEEP GREAT EARTHQUAKES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC REGION AND SOUTH AMERICA
Deep and great earthquakes are distributed mostly in the western Pacific region and Southeast Asia. They also occur in South America (Fig. 2). The most frequent occurrence is the South Fiji Basin – Lau Basin, Southwest Pacific where superplume rises from the Earth’s outer core (Kawakai et al., 1994). In all areas deep earthquakes distribute linearly, implying the control by deep-seated fracture systems (Choi, 2005).
Figure 2. Great (M6.5+) earthquakes in the western Pacific/SE Asia (left) and South America (right). Generated from IRIS website (http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/). For greater clarity only quakes deeper than 300 km are displayed on the left map. The right map includes all depths. Note linearly arranged distribution, suggesting the involvement of deep fracture systems reaching the upper mantle.
1) South Fiji Basin and Lau Basin, Southwest Pacific
The following table (Table 1) lists the great deep earthquakes used for this study. Their depth-year diagram is shown at the top of Fig. 3. The record shows no M7.0+ deep earthquakes from 1970 to 1984 in the region. This quiescence was interrupted in 1985-86, but then became quiet again until 1991. After that the region has become seismically very active up until today, 2016.
Table 1. List of deep and very strong earthquakes in the Fiji region, Southwest Pacific. Quakes with magnitude 6.5 or greater and depth deeper than 350 km were extracted.
Year Month Day Time UTC Mag Lat Lon Depth km Region
1985 8 28 20:50:49 6.6 -21 -178.99 628.8 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1986 5 26 18:40:45 6.8 -21.78 -179.1 590.2 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1986 6 16 10:48:27 7.1 -21.93 -178.96 557.1 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1987 2 10 0:59:30 6.5 -19.36 -177.52 409.7 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1991 9 30 0:21:47 6.9 -20.9 -178.57 579.5 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1992 7 11 10:44:20 7.2 -22.5 -178.39 381.6 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
1993 4 16 14:08:38 6.9 -17.76 -178.85 563.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1994 3 9 23:28:04 7.5 -17.95 -178.43 533.9 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1994 3 31 22:40:51 6.5 -21.99 -179.52 570.5 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1994 10 27 22:20:27 6.6 -25.81 179.35 506.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
1996 8 5 22:38:20 7.3 -20.72 -178.29 531.2 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1996 10 19 14:53:47 6.9 -20.41 -178.44 572.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1997 9 4 4:23:35 6.8 -26.5 178.32 608 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
1998 1 27 21:05:42 6.5 -22.46 179.12 588.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
1998 3 29 19:48:12 7.1 -17.66 -178.99 499.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
1998 5 16 2:22:02 6.8 -22.21 -179.5 570.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2000 12 18 1:19:21 6.5 -21.15 -179.12 617.7 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2001 4 28 4:49:51 6.9 -18.06 -176.94 340.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2002 6 30 21:29:36 6.5 -22.24 179.24 626.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2002 8 19 11:01:02 7.6 -21.7 -179.46 587.7 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2002 8 19 11:08:22 7.7 -23.87 178.45 649.9 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2003 1 4 5:15:05 6.5 -20.65 -177.63 390.4 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2004 7 15 4:27:13 7 -17.7 -178.77 560 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2004 11 17 21:09:09 6.6 -20.05 -178.72 592.2 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2006 1 2 22:13:40 7.1 -19.97 -178.11 584.1 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2006 2 2 12:48:43 6.7 -17.83 -178.28 599.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2007 5 6 21:11:53 6.5 -19.47 -179.33 678.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2007 10 5 7:17:54 6.5 -25.2 179.45 521.3 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2007 10 16 21:05:43 6.6 -25.74 179.5 501.2 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2008 1 15 17:52:16 6.5 -21.99 -179.58 597 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2009 11 9 10:44:54 7.3 -17.27 178.45 591.3 FIJI ISLANDS
2011 2 21 10:57:52 6.5 -26.14 178.39 558.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2011 7 29 7:42:23 6.7 -23.8 179.75 532 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2011 9 15 19:31:04 7.3 -21.61 -179.53 644.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2013 11 23 7:48:32 6.5 -17.1 -176.56 377 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2014 3 26 3:29:36 6.5 -26.09 179.28 493.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2014 5 4 9:15:52 6.6 -24.61 179.09 527 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2014 7 21 14:54:41 6.9 -19.83 -178.46 616.4 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2014 11 1 18:57:22 7.1 -19.7 -177.79 434.4 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2016 5 28 5:38:51 6.6 -22.02 -178.16 416.8 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2016 9 24 21:28:42 6.8 -19.84 -178.27 594.5 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
Their depth-year plot is shown below, Fig. 3. The concentration is seen in the 500 to 600 km depth range. Note the M7.0+ quakes which have increased from 1992; they are almost absent prior to 1992 except 1985.
Fig. 3. Depth- time (year) diagram of the M6.5+ deep quakes since 1970. Note the absence or sparsity of samples prior to 1984, and an overall increase from 1990.
2) Solomon - Papua New Guinea
The following table (Table 2) is a list of M6.5+, deep quakes in this region (Fig. 2). Only five quakes with a depth range of 386–500 km have been registered; three of them in the years from 2010 to 2016. Only one quake has a magnitude over 7.0+. Because of the small number of samples and isolated, narrow occurrence, this area is excluded in Figs. 3 and 6.
It is noted; 1) no samples deeper than 490 km, and 2) no quakes prior to 1988 and frequent occurrence from 2010 onwards, which follow the trends observed in other deep quake regions.
Table 2. List of deep, very strong earthquakes in the Bougainville-New Ireland region.
Year Month Day Time UTC Mag Lat Lon Depth km Region
1989 8 21 18:25:40 6.5 -4.1 154.49 482.7 SOLOMON ISLANDS
1995 6 24 6:58:08 6.8 -3.96 153.91 403.8 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
2010 3 20 14:00:50 6.6 -3.38 152.28 418.9 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
2013 7 7 18:35:30 7.3 -3.92 153.92 386.3 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
2016 8 31 3:11:36 6.7 -3.69 152.79 499.1 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
3) Southeast Asia
Many earthquakes in the studied categories have been registered in the Southeast Asia; Flores Sea, Java Sea, Banda Sea and Celebes-Mindanao (Fig. 4). They are listed in Table 3.
This area follows the same trend as others; sparsity or total absence of great deep quakes prior to 1990, and the peak activity in 2009 to 2011 (Fig. 3).
Figure 4. Deep great earthquakes in the Southeast Asia.
Table 3. Deep (350 km+) and very strong (M6.5+) earthquakes, Southeast Asia (Indonesia and Philippines) from 1970 to 2016 extracted from the IRIS website.
Year Month Day Time UTC Mag Lat Lon Depth km Region
1972 4 4 22:43:06 6.6 -7.47 125.56 -375.5 BANDA SEA
1984 3 5 3:33:51 7.3 8.17 123.77 -656.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
1991 6 7 11:51:24 6.9 -7.11 122.76 -505.4 FLORES SEA
1992 8 2 12:03:20 6.6 -7.12 121.76 -484.4 FLORES SEA
1994 9 28 16:39:53 6.6 -5.76 110.42 -660.5 JAVA SEA
1994 11 15 20:18:11 6.5 -5.62 110.26 -567.7 JAVA SEA
1996 6 17 11:22:18 7.7 -7.11 122.61 -589.5 FLORES SEA
2000 8 7 14:33:56 6.5 -6.98 123.43 -666.1 BANDA SEA
2003 5 26 23:13:31 6.8 6.77 123.81 -586.9 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
2004 7 25 14:35:17 7.3 -2.49 103.97 -581.9 SOUTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
2005 2 5 12:23:18 7 5.29 123.44 -540.4 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
2006 1 27 16:58:54 7.5 -5.45 128.19 -403.6 BANDA SEA
2009 8 28 1:51:19 6.9 -7.2 123.46 -640.1 BANDA SEA
2009 10 4 10:58:00 6.6 6.67 123.51 -635 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
2009 10 7 21:41:14 6.8 4.09 122.54 -586.8 CELEBES SEA
2010 7 23 23:15:09 7.5 6.74 123.33 -633.7 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
2010 7 23 22:51:13 7.7 6.42 123.58 -584.7 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
2010 7 23 22:08:11 7.3 6.71 123.49 -610.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
2010 7 24 5:35:01 6.6 6.17 123.56 -564.7 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
2010 7 29 7:31:56 6.6 6.56 123.36 -615.8 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
2011 2 10 14:41:58 6.5 4.08 123.04 -525 CELEBES SEA
2011 2 10 14:39:27 6.5 4.2 122.97 -523.2 CELEBES SEA
2011 3 10 17:08:36 6.6 -6.87 116.72 -510.6 BALI SEA
2011 8 30 6:57:41 6.9 -6.36 126.75 -469.8 BANDA SEA
2014 12 2 5:11:31 6.6 6.09 123.13 -614 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
2015 2 27 13:45:05 7 -7.29 122.53 -552.3 FLORES SEA
2016 10 19 0:26:01 6.6 -4.86 108.16 -614 JAVA SEA
4) Offshore South Japan, Sea of Japan and Okhotsk Sea
Numerous deep quakes with magnitude 6.5 or greater have been registered in these regions (Fig. 5). Like other areas, the quakes in this category burst from 1984 onwards. Before 1984, on the contrary, quake occurred rarely.
As noted earlier, the quakes in this category directly reflect the orthogonal deep fracture patterns formed in early stage of the Earth’s formation, Precambrian (Choi, 2005).
It should be noted that a strongest deep quake (M8.4) since 1970 occurred in the northernmost Okhotsk Sea in 2013 (Fig. 3 and Table 1, yellow highlight). This energy is expected to reappear at shallow depth in 2017 to 2018 offshore Kamchatka as gigantic earthquakes.
Figure 5. Very strong earthquakes (M6.5+) around Japan and the Okhotsk Sea. Note linear and orthogonal distribution of deep earthquakes, which reflects the occurrence of deep quakes along deep-seated fault zones.
Table 4. List of earthquakes included in analysis of this study.
Year Month Day Time UTC Mag Lat Lon Depth km Region
1970 8 30 17:46:08 6.5 52.36 151.64 -643 SEA OF OKHOTSK
1973 9 29 0:44:00 6.5 41.93 130.99 -567.4 NORTH KOREA
1978 3 7 2:48:47 6.9 31.99 137.61 -440.6 SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN
1984 1 1 9:03:40 7.2 33.62 136.8 -386.4 NEAR S. COAST OF WESTERN HONSHU
1984 3 6 2:17:20 7.4 29.35 138.92 -454.2 SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN
1985 4 3 20:21:36 6.5 28.27 139.55 -475.4 BONIN ISLANDS REGION
1986 2 3 20:47:36 6.5 27.87 139.51 -526.8 BONIN ISLANDS REGION
1987 5 7 3:05:48 6.8 46.75 139.22 -417.1 NEAR SOUTHEAST COAST OF RUSSIA
1987 5 18 3:07:34 6.8 49.24 147.69 -545.6 SEA OF OKHOTSK
1988 9 7 11:53:25 6.7 30.31 137.5 -501.8 SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN
1990 5 12 4:50:08 7.2 49.05 141.88 -602.5 SAKHALIN ISLAND
1991 5 3 2:14:18 6.7 28.09 139.67 -471.4 BONIN ISLANDS REGION
1992 1 20 13:37:04 6.7 27.93 139.47 -521.3 BONIN ISLANDS REGION
1992 10 30 2:49:50 6.5 29.95 139.1 -418.5 SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN
1993 1 19 14:39:26 6.6 38.68 133.56 -446.6 SEA OF JAPAN
1993 10 11 15:54:22 6.8 32.05 137.97 -366.7 SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN
1994 7 21 18:36:30 7.3 42.37 132.91 -458.8 NEAR SOUTHEAST COAST OF RUSSIA
1996 3 16 22:04:06 6.7 28.97 138.98 -481.5 BONIN ISLANDS REGION
1998 8 20 6:40:56 7.1 28.93 139.36 -442.8 BONIN ISLANDS REGION
1999 4 8 13:10:34 7.1 43.61 130.41 -564.1 E. RUSSIA-N.E. CHINA BORDER REG.
2000 8 6 7:27:14 7.3 28.8 139.6 -416.9 BONIN ISLANDS REGION
2002 6 28 17:19:30 7.3 43.76 130.67 -568 E. RUSSIA-N.E. CHINA BORDER REG.
2002 11 17 4:53:55 7.3 47.77 145.99 -483.9 SEA OF OKHOTSK
2003 7 27 6:25:31 6.8 47.1 139.21 -467.5 NEAR SOUTHEAST COAST OF RUSSIA
2007 7 16 14:17:37 6.8 36.86 134.82 -349 SEA OF JAPAN
2008 7 5 2:12:06 7.7 53.95 152.86 -646.1 SEA OF OKHOTSK
2008 11 24 9:03:00 7.3 54.22 154.29 -505.3 SEA OF OKHOTSK
2009 8 9 10:55:56 7.1 33.15 138.06 -302.2 SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2010 2 18 1:13:18 6.9 42.6 130.7 -573.7 E. RUSSIA-N.E. CHINA BORDER REG.
2010 11 30 3:24:41 6.8 28.39 139.24 -485 BONIN ISLANDS REGION
2011 1 12 21:32:53 6.5 26.97 139.88 -512 BONIN ISLANDS REGION
2012 1 1 5:27:55 6.8 31.46 138.07 -365.3 SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012 8 14 2:59:38 7.7 49.8 145.06 -583.2 SEA OF OKHOTSK
2013 5 24 5:44:48 8.4 54.89 153.22 -598.1 SEA OF OKHOTSK
2013 5 24 14:56:31 6.7 52.24 151.44 -624 SEA OF OKHOTSK
2013 9 4 0:18:24 6.5 30.01 138.79 -407 SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2015 5 30 11:23:02 7.8 27.83 140.49 -677.6 BONIN ISLANDS REGION
5) South America
As seen in the list below (Table 5) and the depth-year diagram (Fig. 8), there are no M6.5+ quakes in the 300-500 km depth window in South America. Their depths are concentrated around 600 km. Like other areas, the quakes are sporadic prior to 1983, after which steady appearance is seen.
Table 5. List of deep, very strong earthquakes analysed in this study. See Figs. 2 and 3 for geographic and depth-year distributions, respectively.
Year Month Day Time UTC Mag Lat Lon Depth km Region
1970 7 31 17:08:05 6.5 -1.46 -72.56 -653 COLOMBIA
1983 12 21 12:05:06 7 -28.13 -63.15 -591.9 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
1985 5 1 13:27:57 6.6 -9.21 -71.22 -612.6 PERU-BRAZIL BORDER REGION
1985 10 31 21:49:19 6.5 -28.69 -63.14 -588.9 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
1989 5 5 18:28:40 7 -8.28 -71.39 -605.9 WESTERN BRAZIL
1990 10 17 14:30:15 7 -11.01 -70.77 -625.9 PERU-BRAZIL BORDER REGION
1991 6 23 21:22:29 7.1 -26.75 -63.3 -558.4 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
1994 1 10 15:53:50 6.9 -13.34 -69.41 -604.9 PERU-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
1994 4 29 7:11:29 6.9 -28.25 -63.22 -554.4 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
1994 5 10 6:36:28 6.9 -28.51 -63.02 -604.2 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
1994 6 9 0:33:16 8.2 -13.87 -67.51 -640 NORTHERN BOLIVIA
1994 8 19 10:02:51 6.5 -26.6 -63.38 -558.3 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
1997 11 28 22:53:42 6.6 -13.77 -68.8 -599.8 PERU-BOLIVIA BORDER REGION
2000 4 23 9:27:23 7 -28.29 -62.94 -603.6 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
2002 10 12 20:09:09 6.9 -8.32 -71.67 -516.4 WESTERN BRAZIL
2003 6 20 6:19:40 7 -7.63 -71.71 -572 WESTERN BRAZIL
2005 3 21 12:23:53 6.9 -24.94 -63.46 -576.6 SALTA PROVINCE, ARGENTINA
2006 11 13 1:26:36 6.8 -26.16 -63.29 -581.9 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
2010 5 24 16:18:28 6.5 -8.12 -71.64 -582.1 WESTERN BRAZIL
2011 1 1 9:56:58 7 -26.8 -63.14 -576.8 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
2011 9 2 13:47:09 6.7 -28.4 -63.03 -578.9 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
2011 11 22 18:48:16 6.6 -15.36 -65.09 -549.9 CENTRAL BOLIVIA
2012 5 28 5:07:23 6.7 -28.04 -63.09 -586.9 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO PROV., ARG.
2015 11 24 22:45:38 7.6 -10.55 -70.9 -600.6 PERU-BRAZIL BORDER REGION
2015 11 24 22:50:53 7.6 -10.05 -71.02 -611.7 PERU-BRAZIL BORDER REGION
2015 11 26 5:45:18 6.7 -9.19 -71.29 -599.4 PERU-BRAZIL BORDER REGION
3. GREAT DEEP EARTHQUAKES AND SOLAR CYCLE
1) General trends in great deep quake occurrence
This section compares the solar cycle and the great deep earthquakes scanned through in the foregoing pages. A summary figure of the depth-year diagram is shown in Fig. 3, and that of the frequency-year in Fig. 6.
Each region has some distinctive trends, but on the whole the following trends are recognized.
- The complete absence or sparsity of great deep earthquakes throughout the globe prior to 1984.
- A peak in 1984 followed by a relative quiescence from 1985 to 1989. Note here that the M7.0+ quake
peak in 1984 in IRIS archive (Fig. 6) is not seen in USGS archive (see Fig. 7) – they were downgraded below 7.0 magnitude in the latter.
- Another outstanding peak in 1994 which is seen in all study areas. It is followed by an overall active
phase until 1998, which is particularly well observed in South Fiji-Lau Basins. A quiet period ensued
from 1999 to 2001.
- A sudden burst in 2002 which is followed by a relatively active phase until 2010.
- A peak in 2015 which is seen commonly in Southeast Asia, Sea of Japan and South America, but it is
not seen in Fiji.
In terms of the depth of hypocenters, most regions (Fiji, SE Asia and South America) have a concentration in 550 and 620 km, but the South of Japan, Sea of Japan and Okhotsk Sea areas are slightly shallower, 400 to 600 km. As stated earlier, it is worthy to note - the narrow hypocentre range (around 600 km) and the complete absence of South American deep quakes between 300 and 500 km.
2) Comparison of great deep quake trends and solar cycles
The solar cycle and earthquake frequency are compared in Fig. 6. If we see the peaks of magnitude 7+ shocks with three or more per year in the second top figure, the spikes are, 1984, 1994, 2020, 2010 and 2015. All of them are located at the start of the lowering cycle, during the lowering period, or the later stage of the trough.
The Southwest Pacific record is most remarkable. All of the high activity periods represented by M6.5+ quakes almost perfectly correlate to the solar cycle lows or troughs. However, other areas, do not necessary follow this trend, although overall trend remains the same – heightened activity during the trough. Here the highest activity in 2010 in Southeast Asia is most outstanding. Note here a disturbed solar cycle trend between cycles 23 and 24; unusually longer lowering cycle. In South America 2015 was the most active year – which corresponds to the early lowering period after the cycle 24 peaked in 2012.
As illustrated in the M7.0+ quake fluctuation from 1970 to 2016 (Fig. 6, second figure from the top), the overall frequency of the great deep quakes became much more active after 1994 with a precursory minor peak in 1990. This fact coincides with the declining solar curve started from the cycle 22 peak, 1990 (Fig. 6 top figure), which is still continuing today, and expected to last 20 to 30 years more – coined solar hibernation by Casey (2014). Recently the solar physics community named the expected solar minimum covering solar cycles 24, 25 and 26, the “Eddy” Minimum (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/07/the-potential-impact-of-volcanic-overprinting-of-the-eddy-minimum/).
Figure 6. Histogram of M6.5+ quakes with emphasis on M7.0+ quakes and their comparison with the solar cycle curve. The list in this figure is solely based on the IRIS registered earthquakes which are somewhat different from the USGS data base as seen in Fig. 7. The “Earth core active phase” from Choi and Maslov (2010), and “seismo-volcanic quiescence” from Choi (2010) and Tsunoda et al. (2013). Blue shade indicates the lowering and trough of solar cycle.
The heightened seismic activity possibly coming from the increased core activity (“Earth core active phase”) since 1990 has been discovered by Choi and Maslov (2010). It has been also summarized by Choi
et al. (2014) based on the worldwide seismic and volcanic eruption records. This is best illustrated in Fig. 7, in which clear correlation is seen in the coincidence between the “Earth core active phase” and the sudden increase in seismic activity from 1990.
Figure 7. Earthquakes and solar cycle. Cited from Choi et al. (2014). This figure is solely based on USGS NEIC archives. Note a sudden increase in both shallow and deep seismic activity started from 1990 which coincides with the “Earth core active phase” by Choi and Maslov (2010). All of the California’s M7.0+ quakes have occurred exclusively after 1991. Note, 1) major volcanic eruptions occurred at the second peak or the early stage of lowering cycle, and 2) deep precursory quakes of Japan’s M9.0 quake in 2011 occurred in 2005 to 2007 (Choi, 2011) which belong to the lowering period of cycle 23.
4. DISCUSSION
Great deep earthquakes show correlation with the combined cycles: 1) the 11 year Schwabe cycle, and 2) the 22 year Hale cycle which coincides with the peak of the 11 year cycle 23. The latter is most conspicuous – prior to 1990, almost no great deep quakes, except for a peak in 1984 indicated in the IRIS archive (note: this peak is not present in the USGS archive).
Since this analysis covered the period 1970 to 2016, the possibility exists for the influence of longer
duration solar cycles than the 11 and 22 year cycles upon the frequency and extent of deep earthquakes.
Further analysis is required. For example previous work by Casey (2010, 2013 and 2014) has shown a 100 and 206 year cycle in solar activity.
5. CONCLUSIONS
1. The Earth’s core activity has entered an active phase since 1990 as seen in the sudden appearance of
great deep earthquakes after 1990.
2. This 1990 is the starting year of unusual behaviour of solar activity – lingering lowering period of the 11-year cycles (between cycle nos. 23, 24 and 25), and declining peaks of cycles.
3. We expect the stronger release of thermal energy from the outer core to continue for the coming 20 to 30 years, which would generate catastrophic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions throughout the globe.
4. Regional differences in the timing, intensity, and depth of deep quakes indicate the presence of other factors in deep quakes and solar activity.
References cited
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April 5, 2016. NCGT Journal, v. 4, no. 2, p. 279-285.
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Choi, D.R., 2005. Deep earthquakes and deep-seated tectonic zones: A new interpretation of the Wadati-Benioff Zone. Boll. Soc. Geol. It., Vol. Speciale, no. 5, p. 79-118.
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Choi, D.R. and Casey, J., 2015. Blot’s energy transmigration law and the September 2015 M8.3 Chile Earthquake. NCGT Journal, v. 3, no. 3, p. 387-390.
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Choi, D.R. and Maslov, L., 2010. Earthquakes and solar activity cycles. NCGT Newsletter, v. 1, no. 2, p. 65-80.
Choi, D.R. and Tsunoda, F., 2011. Volcanic and seismic activities during the solar hibernation periods. NCGT
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Davidson, B., 2015. A surge and short-term peak I northern solar polar field magnetism prior to the M8.3 Earthquake near Chile on September 16, 2015. NCGT Journal, v. 3, n. 3, p. 391-393.
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Grover, J.C., 1998. Volcanic eruptions and Great Earthquakes. Advance warning techniques to master the deadly science. CopyRight Publishing Company Pty Ltd., Brisbane. 272p., ISBN 1 875401 70 9.
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Kolvankar, V.G., 2011. Sun, Moon and earthquakes. NCGT Newsletter, no. 60, p. 50-66.
Simpson, J.F., 1967. Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 3, p. 417-425.
Straser, V., Cataldi, G. and Cataldi, D., 2015. Solar wind ionic and geomagnetic variations preceding the md8.3 Chile Earthquake. NCGT Journal, v. 3, no. 3, p. 394-399.
Tsunoda, F., Choi, D.R. and Kawabe, T., 2013. Thermal energy transmigration and fluctuation. NCGT Journal,
v. 1, no. 2, p. 65-80.
Tsunoda, F. and Choi, D.R., 2016. The 15 April 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake swarm: Geology, thermal energy
transmigration, and precursors. NCGT Journal, v. 4, no. 2, p. 286-294.
U-Yen, K., 2015. Space weather conditions prior to the M8.3 Chile earthquake. NCGT Journal, v. 3, no. 3,
p. 405-406.
Venkatanathan, N., Philipoff, P. and Madhumitha, S., 2015. Outgoing longwave radiation anomaly prior to the big earthquakes: a study on the September 2015 Chile earthquake. NCGT Journal, v. 3, no. 3, p. 400-404.
Wu, H.-C., 2015. Anomalies in jet streams that appeared prior to the 16 September 2015 M8.3 Chile earthquake. NCGT Journal, v. 3, no. 3, p. 407-408.
Wu, H.-C., 2016. Anomalies in jet-streams prior to the M6.6 Taiwan earthquakes on 5 February 2016 and the M7.0 Kumamoto earthquake on 15 April 2016. NCGT Journal, v. 4, no. 2, p. 276-278
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NCGT Journal, v. 1, no. 3, September 2013. www.ncgt.org 2
FROM THE EDITOR
Earthquakes and surge tectonics
As some of you may be aware, in February of this year the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC) warned of possible strong earthquakes in Yunnan, South China (www.ivepc.org). This was based on various signals we had detected from the region since late last year. In accordance with our prediction, an M6.6 quake occurred on 20 April 2013 in Sichuan near the predicted area. More than 150 people died. Immediately after the quake, Chinese National TV interviewed John Casey, Chairman of the IEVPC, at the head office in Florida, and broadcast it in real time throughout their country. The second quake (M5.8) occurred on 31 August 2013 in northernmost Yunnan. Since then the region’s seismo-electromagnetic activities have been gradually abating.
___Our comprehensive geological-seismological analysis conducted for this particular prediction confirmed a very interesting fact: the presence of a live surge channel occupying the Yunnan and Sichuan region (originally described by Meyerhoff et al., 1992 & 1996).
Since the 1970s it has hosted a series of strong earthquakes along a major NE-SW tectonic belt that connects to the Tan-lu Fault in North China and, further northwards, a deep tectonic/seismic zone in the Okhotsk Sea.
___Along the Myanmar-South China segment of this tectonic zone, three major earthquakes have occurred since late last year – an M6.8 quake in central Myanmar in November 2012 (IEVPC colleagues successfully predicted it with pinpoint accuracy),
an M6.6 in Sichuan in April 2013, and an M5.8 in northernmost Yunnan in August 2013. Their geological significance in relation to the Yunnan surge channel is discussed on pages 45-55 of this NCGT issue.
The Yunnan surge channel develops on the axis of the northern end of the Borneo- Vanuatu Geanticline, which has been heavily oceanized in the SW Pacific and Southeast Asian region.
___As stated in my article in this issue (pages 45-55), the Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline is a trunk surge channel through which the energy derived from the superplume in the SW Pacific migrates northward, and the process occurring in the Yunnan surge channel can be regarded as an incipient stage of oceanization.
The IEVPC’s continuing successful earthquake predictions are the result of combining the right seismo-tectonic model with medium- and short-term signal detection tools.
___The new earthquake model is based on thermal energy derived from the Earth’s outer core, its transmigration along deep fracture systems and surge channels, trap structures, geological history represented by orogenic events, and local and regional geology.
Thermal energy (or perhaps more properly, thermal-electromagnetic energy) transmigration is the heart of the IEVPC’s working model. Hence a good knowledge of local and regional geological structure is essential in predicting in which direction the generated energy will flow, particularly in areas where strong deep earthquakes have occurred. In this context, surge tectonics is instrumental in our prediction approach. Earthquakes as well as volcanic activities cannot happen without heat input into the upper mantle and the crust.
___Like hydrocarbons, migrating or flowing thermal energy accumulates in structural highs with effective seals in the upper mantle. We therefore assume that earthquake belts have underlying channels through which thermal energy can flow – they are often developed in ancient or young orogenic/mobile belts that form structural highs in the mantle.
As a practising field geologist, I am convinced that surge tectonics is a comprehensive and workable tectonic concept that can explain most of what we observe at the Earth’s surface and in its interior, although some updates are needed to incorporate new data that have appeared since 1996, when the most recent version of surge tectonics was published. In this issue Karsten Storetvedt presents a critique of surge tectonics and a defence of wrench tectonics (p. 56-102), to which David Pratt (p. 103-117) and Arthur Meyerhoff’s children (p. 117-121) reply. Another response by Taner et al. will be published in the next issue. We welcome this open debate in the pages of the NCGT Journal.
References
Meyerhoff, A.A., Taner, I., Morris, A.E.L., Martin, B.D., Agocs, W.B. and Meyerhoff, H., 1992. Surge tectonics. In:
Chatterjee, S. and Hotton, N. III (eds.), New Concepts in Global Tectonics, Texas Tech Univ. Press, Lubbock. p. 309-409.
Meyerhoff, A.A., Taner, I., Morris, A.E.L., Agocs, W.B., Kamen-kaye, M., Bhat, M.I., Smoot, N.C., Choi, D.R. and
Meyerhoff-Hull, D. (ed.), 1996. Surge tectonics: a new hypothesis of global geodynamics. Kluwer Academic
Publishers, 323p.
NCGT Journal, v. 1, no. 3, September 2013. www.ncgt.org
An Archean geanticline stretching from the South Pacific to Siberia, Dong R. CHOI………………………………..45
(The Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline was found to connect to the Siberian Craton via the East Asia Reflective Axial Belt in China. This super antilinal trend forms one of the most outstanding Archean structural elements on the Earth’s surface together with the “North-South American Superantilcine”, an antipodal counterpart in the western hemisphere)
NCGT Journal, v. 1, no. 3, September 2013. www.ncgt.org
45
AN ARCHEAN GEANTICLINE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC TO SIBERIA
Dong R. CHOI
International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center
Canberra, Australia
dchoi@ievpc.org
Abstract: The Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline reported earlier by the author was found to connect to the Siberian Craton via the East Asia Reflective Axial Belt in China. This geanticlinal trend, here called the South Pacific-Siberia Geanticline” (SPSG), forms one of the most outstanding Archean structural elements on the Earth’s surface, together with the “North-South American Geanticline” (NSAG), an antipodal counterpart in the western hemisphere.
___The SPSG has been subject to strong magmatic and tectonic activities in the Proterozoic and Phanerozoic, notably in the South Pacific and Southeast Asia region where uplift and oceanization-induced subsidence took place in the Cenozoic.
The Yunnan surge channel in South China, characterized by a kobergen and well- developed low-velocity layers in the upper mantle and the lower crust, sits on this geanticline.
___The fact that the framework of these two global-scale geanticlinal trends is still preserved almost intact flatly contradicts large-scale horizontal movement of the Earth’s crust and mantle, and provides constraints on geodynamic models of the Earth.
Keywords: Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline, East Asia Reflective Axial Belt, Yunnan surge channel, N-S American Geanticline, Siberian Craton, Earth’s geodynamics
1. Introduction
While studying the geology of China to facilitate earthquake prediction for the Yunnan-Sichuan area, the author came across a significant tectonic feature regarding the northern extension of the Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline (Choi, 2005 and 2007) through China and Mongolia to the Siberian Craton.
___This geanticlinal trend hosts the Yunnan surge channel identified by Meyerhoff et al. (1992 and 1996), where very active seismic activity has been occurring in recent times.
Together with the North-South American counterpart that is situated in an antipodal position, the existence of this global-scale geanticlinal trend has wide ramifications in understanding geodynamic processes and the history of the Earth. Here I briefly report these new findings, focusing on the northward tectonic link of the BVG. A more detailed account of the Yunnan surge channel and its geological significance will be given on another occasion (Choi et al., in preparation). Another paper on mineral deposits along the Geantincline is also in preparation (Michaelson and Choi).
2. Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline (BVG)
The Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline was first proposed by the author of this paper (Choi, 2005 and 2007).
___Its presence was detected on a free-air gravity map (to degree 10) published by the Circum-Pacific Council for Energy and Mineral Resources (1985), Fig. 1; it is considered to show the density contrast from the surface to the core-mantle boundary, 2,900 km. This linear mantle high sits on a high-velocity anomaly zone in the deep mantle tomographic images by Fukao et al. (1994), thus it is undoubtedly deep rooted, reaching the core-mantle boundary. The gravity peaks are situated in the North and South Fiji basins, New Guinea and Borneo: the axial area (several thousand km wide) is characterized by high heat flow, especially in the Fiji Basins (Tuezov and Lipina, 1988), mantle-origin ultramafic or ophiolitic rocks (New Guinea Island and Banda Sea), and Precambrian-Lower Paleozoic rocks or granite (Borneo). On both wings of the BVG, deep-seated fault zones with swarms of deep earthquakes are developed (Fig. 2). Today the BVG is very active, characterized by both uplift and subsidence (where oceanization has occurred). It is a trunk channel for thermal energy that originates from the outer core and passes through a superplume under the South Pacific (Fiji-Tonga) region to the northern area, Southeast Asia, China and the western Pacific including Japan (Tsunoda et al., 2003).
==Figure 1. Free-air gravity to degree 10 around the Australian continent and the axis of the Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline. This map is considered to show the density contrast from the surface to the core-mantle interface (2,900 km; Circum-Pacific Council for Energy and Mineral Resources, 1985). Cited from Choi (2005).
==Figure 2. Tectonic framework of the BVG in relation to deep earthquake belts and major tectonic zones (Choi, 2005). EARA Belt = East Asia Reflective Axial Belt redefined by Zhang and Wang (1995). Note well-developed deep earthquake zones on both wings of the BVG. Lineaments and ore deposits in the Australian continent from O’Driscoll (1986).
3. Northern extension of the Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline
1) China
___As seen in Yanshin et al.’s (1966) map, Fig. 3, the BVG obviously connects northward with the Yunnan-Guizhou Anticline (brown stripe in the map); it is a N-S trending Proterozoic anticline at the western margin of the Yangtze Platform.
==Figure 3. Tectonic map of the South China and Indochina area. Base map by Yanshin et al. (1966). Major earthquakes in 2012 to 2013 are shown. The BVG runs through the Yunnan-Guizhou Anticline (coloured brown) and extends northward.
The Yunnan-Guizhou anticline extends further northward as the East Asia Reflective Axial Belt (EARAB) redefined by Zhang and Wang (1995) – earlier it was called the “North-South Trending Belt” or “North-South Zone” by Yin et al. (1980), Wang (1985) and Ma (1986), Fig. 4. The axial area of the EARAB is about 200 to 250 km wide.
___Zhang and Wang described it as a “natural crustal boundary” situated between the western and eastern China crustal blocks;
the eastern part of the boundary belongs to the Circum-Pacific mineral province, whereas the western part belongs to the Tethys mineral province. The central axial belt has a mixture of both mineral provinces.
___The axial belt is a notable earthquake belt too (Ma, 1989); Zhang and Wang (1995) further remarked that earthquakes on the central axial belt migrate isochronally and equidistantly from south to north or north to south. This is an important observation that implies the energy flow occurring under the axial belt. East of the EARAB has higher heat flow and thinner crust than the west as summarized in Meyerhoff et al. (2006).
The EARAB runs through the western wall of the Ordos Basin where patches of Archean and Proterozoic crustal blocks are exposed (Fig. 6). The bouguer gravity anomaly map (Fig. 5) shows a large low-anomaly trough to the west of the EARAB. This is supported by the magnetic anomaly map too (Fig. 6 right side figure). The original structures along the EARAB are clearly very early Proterozoic or more likely Archean (Meyerhoff et al., 2006).
==Fig. 4. Tectonic mosaic map of China by Zhang and Wang (1995). The BVG extends northward as the Yunnan-Guizhou Anticline and the East Asia Reflective Axial Belt. Major earthquakes (M6.5+) since 2010 and the Yunnan surge channel are superimposed. Filled stars occurred from late 2012 to 2013. Surge channel by Meyerhoff et al. (1992 and 1996).
==Figure 5. Bouguer anomaly map of China from Wang (1983). Note the strong high- gravity anomaly in the border area with Mongolia situated on the axis of the EARAB.
2) Mongolia and Russia
In Mongolia the axis of the EARAB extends northward. Near the Chinese border, a gigantic copper-gold deposit, Oyu-Tolgoi deposit (Fig. 6; http://ot.mn/en), is situated on the eastern boundary fault of the EARAB. The area is characterized by a number of Permian intrusives as well as Tertiary extrusives, clear
==Figure 6. Geanticlinal trend in China, Mongolia and Russia. Left – geological map by Jatskevich et al., 2000, and right – magnetic anomaly map by Korhonen et al., 2007. Archean and Proterozoic distribution emphasized in the west of Ordos Basin. AR=Archean, PR=Proterozoic.
evidence of prolonged magmatic activity (Michaelson, personal communication, September 2013). Near Ulaan Baatar, a swarm of Mesozoic granites which intruded the Middle-Upper Paleozoic sedimentary rocks are indicated on the Yanshin et al. (1966) geological map. Then, the EARAB runs through the western margin of Lake Baikal and enters the Siberian Craton to reach the Anabar Massif where the Archean is exposed (Fig. 6). Pavlenkova (2005) illustrated the deep root of the Siberian Craton over 300 km. The EARAB seems to extend further north to the Severnaja Zemlja in the Arctic Ocean.
4. Yunnan surge channel
Another discovery was the Yunnan surge channel (Meyerhoff et al., 1992 and 1996) situated exactly on the axis of the BVG-EARAB (Fig. 4). It is also related to orthogonal structures, Ct4/Ct5 and Tt3/Tt4 structural belts as illustrated in Figs. 4 and 8. Historically strong earthquakes have occurred inside or around the surge channel (Fig. 8). Most of the major quakes occurred in the NE-SW Ct4 tectonic zone which is a deep-seated tectonic zone connecting with the Tan-lu Fault in the North China and Okhotsk Sea, along which deep earthquakes are nested. Further study is needed to clarify the relationship between earthquake loci and distribution of low-velocity layers in the mantle and the crust (Fig. 7); this will provide a valuable insight into the energy flow along surge channels and the tectonic processes causing earthquakes and volcanic eruptions (Choi et al., in preparation).
==Figure 7. Yunnan surge channel (top right) by Meyerhoff et al. (1992 and 1996): kobergen (top – A; Wang and Chu, 1988), and seismotomographic sections (B and C; Liu et al., 1989) showing low-velocity layers. See Fig. 8 for details of geologic structure. The kobergen has been uplifting very actively in Cenozoic time.
==Figure 8. Crustal wavy mosaic structure (Zhang and Wang, 1995), surge channel (Meyerhoff et al., 1992 and 1996), and East Asia Reflective Axial Belt. See Fig. 7 for seismotomographic sections.
Strong earthquakes with magnitude 6.5 or greater since 1973 are also shown. The August 2013 M5.8 quake in the northernmost Yunnan is indicated too. Circled stars are earthquakes occurred in late 2012 to 2013. Note five strong quakes that occurred in a single year, 1976 (filled red star) on the Ct4 tectonic zone. 1976 was the bottom cycle year between solar cycles 20 and 21.
5. N-S American Geanticline
The author (1999) wrote about the South American Geanticlinal trend characterized by Archean cores and emphasized their structural continuation into oceanic areas: the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the north, and the Rio Grande Ridge, South Atlantic Ocean, in the south. The latter has been proved by dredging and submersible observation on the Rio Grande Ridge, as reported in the last issue of NCGT Journal (v. 1, no. 2, p. 2).
___The northern extension of the South American Geanticline is confirmed by the Caribbean dome (Choi, 2010). The Gulf of Mexico is a Pennsylvanian thermal dome that has collapsed since the Permian, according to Pratsch (2008 and 2010).
The northern extension into the North American continent can be placed in the collapsed basin areas (Fig. 6): N-S troughs surrounded by the Ordovician and younger strata in the southern part of the continent or the United States.
The distribution of Paleozoic units in the region suggests that the collapsed structure was formed after the deposition of the Ordovician and prior to the Silurian. In the area of the Canadian Shield, the axial collapse may have occurred prior to the Ordovician. It is noteworthy that the Cambrian units are almost missing in the Shield, implying a subaerial environment during the Cambrian. The distribution of Proterozoic rocks suggests that the incipient axial depression formed in the Early Proterozoic, and the depression became most distinctive prior to the Ordovician.
To summarize the above, the axis of the North American Geanticline can be placed in the N-S trending axial area of the Canadian Shield which has formed basins since the Proterozoic to Early Paleozoic as seen in Fig. 9.
==Figure 9. Global geanticlinal trends superimposed on the magnetic map by Korhonen et al., 2007. They are antipodal to each other.
6. Discussion
The presence of a global-scale geanticlinal structure stretching from the South Pacific to Siberia, or the South Pacific-Siberia Geanticline (SPSG) is of particular significance and has wide ramifications in constraining the geodynamic history of the Earth. The Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline (BVG), the southern segment of the SPSG, is characterized by active rise in Cenozoic time (Ollier and Pain, 1980 for example), which simultaneously has been subject to oceanization that resulted in active subsidence to form insular and oceanic basins.
___The BVG is considered the trunk conduit for thermal energy transmigration from the superplume under the Fiji-Tonga-Vanuatu region to the north, Southeast Asia, China, and the western Pacific margins (Tsunoda et al., 2013).
Detailed tomographic mapping of low-velocity layers along the BVG is required to clarify the actual mechanism of thermal transfer along the low-velocity layers.
Another interesting fact is that the tectonic position of the Yunnan surge channel situated at the junction of SPSG and other two orthogonal fracture systems.
___Active energy release through the low-velocity layers at structural culminations or junctions of deep fracture systems can be regarded as an incipient stage of the oceanization process
The antipodal relation between the SPSG and the N-S American Geanticlines is of special interest. This intriguing tectonic relationship must be investigated. Obviously they have affected the tectonic development of the Earth throughout the Proterozoic to the Phanerozoic.
___From a historical perspective, the area of the Yunnan surge channel coincides with the Permian Emeishan Large Igneous Province (Fig. 10; Ukstins-Peate and Bryan, 2008), suggesting that the Yunnan surge channel has a long history of magmatic activity since at least the Permian.
On the basis of extensive literature search and study, Meyerhoff et al. (2006) concluded the most intense surge-channel activity in the Red River channel was between late Proterozoic and Late Triassic time. This is applicable to the northern segment of the SPSG in Mongolia where numerous Permian to Mesozoic intrusives with Tertiary extrusives, as stated earlier.
==Figure 10. Permian Emeishan volcanic deposits. Ukstins-Peate and Bryan, 2008. The inner zone is included in the present-day surge channel.
As seen in Figs. 4, 8 and 9, the SPSG is not affected by NE and NW orthogonal structures which disturb Proterozoic structures. Because the former involves Archean basements, the Geanticline was formed earlier than the formation of orthogonal structures (Fig. 6). This is applicable to the N-S American Geanticline too.
___These facts suggest that the Geanticlines were formed in the Archean, probably when the Earth’s surface was still hot and prior to the cooling which led to the formation of the pervasive orthogonal structure in the Proterozoic.
7. Conclusions
This paper described one of the most outstanding geological structures seen at the Earth’s surface; a global-scale, deep-rooted geanticlinal structure extending from the South Pacific to the Siberian Craton. It was formed in the Archean and, together with the antipodal N-S American Geanticline, undoubtedly affected the structural and magmatic development of the Earth. Together they place constraints on global tectonic models. The Yunnan surge channel sits on the axis of the Geanticline.
___It is one of the most active surge channels today, characterized by strong energy discharge (earthquakes) and active rise in the Cenozoic. These activities can be regarded as the early stage of the oceanization process. The existence of such large-scale, deep-rooted, Archean-origin geological structures on opposite sides of the globe, both without large horizontal dislocation, means that no large-scale horizontal movement of the crust and mantle as claimed by plate tectonics has occurred since Proterozoic to Cenozoic time.
Acknowledgements: The author’s sincere thanks are offered to; Chris Pratsch for geology the Gulf of Mexico, Nina Pavlenkova for geological information about the Siberian Craton, and Per Michaelson of Nordic Geological Solutions for Mongolian and Chinese geology and mineral deposits as well as valuable general comment. The author’s thanks are extended to David Pratt for English editing.
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Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline and the tectonic framework of Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean, Dong R. CHOI…….….18
18 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 42, March, 2007 BORNEO-VANUATU GEANTICLINE AND THE TECTONIC FRAMEWORK OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN
Dong R. CHOI
Raax Australia Pty Ltd
6 Mann Place, Higgins, ACT 2615, Australia
raax@ozemail.com.au; www.raax.com.au
Abstract: Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline (BVG) is a NW-SE trending deep-mantle high in SE Asia and the western Pacific. In combination with the perpendicular NE-SW linear trend, represented by the Laurantian-2 Trend, it has determined the tectonic framework and paleogeographic development of the region. SE Asia is positioned at the junction of these two trends and another global lineament Tethyan-1 Trend; it is currently tectonically one of the most active regions in the world mainly due to the rapid subsidence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans along a NE-SW block developed between the Laurentian-2 Trend and the relatively stable Kerguellen-Australia- Hawaii block.
Keywords: Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline, Lauratian-2 Trend, Kerguellen-Australia- Hawaii block, SE Asia, Indian Ocean
Introduction
In one of recent papers, I described a major NW-SE trending deep mantle high structure extending from SE Asia to the Western Pacific (Fig. 1; Choi, 2005). During the study of this outstanding tectonic feature, I came to realize that this structural high is one of the most active and fundamental tectonic features on the globe, and is strongly related to the makings of the tectonic framework of SE Asia and the Indian Ocean. Here I am going to briefly describe some of the highlights of my ongoing study.
1. Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline
This arcuate mantle high structural trend (Fig. 1; Choi, 2005) develops in the oceanic areas to the north and east of the Australian continent, stretching in NW- SE direction from north of New Zealand (Kermadec Islands), through Vanuatu, New Guinea and Borneo, to Indochina, with a total length around 10,000 km and a width 3,000 km. Here I name this trend, Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline (BVG). It is clearly defined by free-air gravity data (to degree 10) which is considered to show the density contrast from the surface to the core-mantle boundary, 2,900 km (Circum- Pacific Council, 1985). This mantle high sits on a high-velocity anomaly zone in the deep mantle tomographic image by Fukano et al. (1994; Fig. 2). Undoubtedly the Geanticline is deep rooted, reaching the core-mantle boundary. The gravity peaks are situated in the North and South Fiji basins, New Guinea and Borneo: the axial area is characterized by high heat flow, especially in the Fiji Basins (Tuezov and Lipina, 1988), mantle-origin ultramafic or ophiolitic rocks (New Guinea Island and Banda Sea), and Precambrian-Lower Paleozoic rocks or granite (Borneo).
___The BVG runs locally parallel with one of the global lineaments, Tethyan-1 (T-1) Trend by O’Driscoll (1980 and 1992; Figs. 2 and 4), but on the whole, it runs N40- 50W (= N40W orientation of De Kalb, 1990). Interestingly, the distribution of the 300-km seismic discontinuity in the mantle in the western Pacific region (Williams and Revenaugh, 2005; Fig. 3) is almost identical with that of the BVG. This coincidence strongly suggests that the discontinuity is related to the raised mantle structure,
but not to ancient subducted oceanic crusts entrained in Earth’s mantle, as Williams and Revenaugh speculate. However, apart from their tectonic interpretation, their conclusion based on geochemical analysis that the discontinuity is generated by SiO2-stishovite formation in an eclogitic assemblage is worthy of note in considering the upper mantle processes under the mantle high block. The northern extension of the BVG is not clear, but patches of this seismic discontinuity in the Western Siberian Platform make it tempting to connect the BVG to that region at least at the shallow mantle level.
==Figure 1. Free air gravity to degree 10 around the Australian continent (Circum- Pacific Council for Energy and Mineral Resources, 1985) with the Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline superimposed New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 42, March, 2007 19
==Figure 2. Mantle tomography between 700 and 1700 km by Fukao et al. (1994) and Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline. Also O’Driscoll’s global lineaments are added. Modified from Choi (2005). The Geanticline is situated in the high-velocity anomaly area. A = Tan-Lu – Kamchatka Tectonic Zone, B = Susong-chon – Lake Biwa – Mariana Islands T.Z., C = Shan Boundary – West Malaysia – Java Sea T.Z., D = New Zealand – Fiji T.Z., E= West Brazilian Shied T.Z.
2. Relation to the tectonic framework of SE Asia and the Indian Ocean.
Now let’s examine the Geanticline on a global scale. I superimposed the BVG on a gravity anomaly map generated by the DEOS program (www.deos.tudelft.nl/altim/atlas) and global lineaments in Figs. 4 and 5.
As can be seen on Fig. 4, the Geanticline is parallel with the Mid-Indian Ocean Ridge (Carlsberg - Mid-Indian - SE Indian Ridges). Some rudimentary parallelism is also seen in the Kerguellen – Madagascar Ridge trend in the southern Indian Ocean. Also parallel is the Hawaiian Ridge-Emperor Sea Mount trend. A very distinctive, broad (3,000 km) gravity-low anomaly zone lies between the BVG and the Mid-Indian Ocean Ridge in the eastern Indian Ocean. This low gravity zone as a whole extends from India, crossing Australia, to the South Pacific. This zone had formed paleolands until Jurassic (Jatskevich, 2000; Blot and Choi, 2006; Choi, 2006; Figs. 5 and 6), but subsided at the end of Jurassic. This is evidenced by the extensive development of Cretaceous sedimentary basins in this gravity-low zone which forms a flat deep-sea plain, 5,000 to 7,000 meters deep (Fig. 6).
The BVG is perpendicularly crossed by another set of lineaments – represented by Lauratian-2 (L-2) Trend (Figs. 4 and 5), which is roughly N50E in the predominant direction (= N50E orientation of De Kalb, 1990). The L-2 Trend is situated roughly at the boundary between the northern continental and the southern oceanic blocks. ___The latter, about 3,000 km wide, started to subside at the end of the Jurassic, and the subsidence is still actively progressing in the Cenozoic.
The 2004 Boxing Day earthquake in northern Sumatra occurred on this line (Figs. 5). The recent spates of large earthquakes (Blot and Choi, 2006) as well as the continuing mud volcano eruptions (United Nations, 2006) in Indonesia are indications that the strong stress accumulation along ridges is mainly due to the active subsidence of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific margins coupled with deep energy discharge from the BVG.
___The subsided zone south of the L-2 Trend has a structural high block which was shown in one of my previous papers (Blot and Choi, 2006; Fig. 5).
Note this structural high stretching from the SW Indian Ridge-north Kerguellen Plateau to Sumatra is slightly oblique to the L-2 Trend and controlled the distribution of the Cretaceous sedimentary basins in the eastern Indian Ocean (Figs. 5 & 7). Of special interest is the locality of the Jura-type Indoysian fold belt discussed by Wezel (1988): It is situated near or on the L-2 Trend between Sri Lanka and Ninety East Ridge. Considering the geologic profiles coupled with thick sediments in the north (Bengal fan), the region is undoubtedly of economic interest for industry. There is another NE-SW trending crustal block (4,000 km wide) stretching from Kerguellen Plateau through Australia and Hawaii to the NW coast of USA (Fig. 4). This is a relatively stable block without deep trenches (Choi, 2005).
3. Summary
The BVG is a deep-mantle-rooted structure and has helped to frame the tectonics of SE Asia and the Indian Ocean.
___The recent extremely intense tectonic activities in the Indonesian region can be explained by processes occurring under the BVG and its perpendicular blocks related to the L-2 Trend which is causing active subsidence in both the Pacific and the Indian Ocean sectors. All geological and geophysical data clearly show that a large part of the Indian Ocean had formed paleolands until the Jurassic to Cretaceous, that the composition of the “oceanic crust” is continental (Shipboard Scientific Party, 1989; Jatskevich, 2000; Blot and Choi, 2006; Seychelles National Oil Company, 2006, Fig. 9; Vassiliev and Yano, 2006), and that the mid-Indian Ocean ridges finally submerged only in the Neogene to Quaternary time.
A correct understanding of tectonics and geological development of SE Asia and the Indian Ocean is essential in mineral resources exploration as well as in scientific prediction of natural disasters such as earthquakes. There is an urgent need for Jatskevich’s Geological Map of the World to be updated and for paleogeograhic maps of the study areas throughout the Phanerozoic to be compiled by a multidisciplinary team of scientists from all surrounding countries. I hope the current short paper will become a first step in this direction. 20
==Figure 3. Distribution of the 300 km seismic discontinuity by Williams and Revenaugh (2005). They speculate that the distribution indicates the residue of ancient subducted oceanic crusts within the upper mantle. The superimposed red line is the Borneo-Vanuatu Geanticline. Obviously the seismic discontinuity has something to do with the mantle high structure. Compare this with tomography in Fig. 2 which shows the state of the mantle at much deeper section. Recapture of this figure by permission from Geological Society of America.
==Figure 4. Gravity anomaly map (equi rectangular) with major global linear trends superimposed. M-L Line = Mediterranean-Lake Baikal Tectonic Line (new name). SE Asia is positioned at the junction of BVG, Lauratian-2 Trend and the Tethyan-1 Trend; and the Mediterranean Sea Tethyan-1 Trend and M-L Line.
___Note parallelism among BVG, Mid-Indian Ocean Ridge, Keguellen-Madagascar trend and Hawaii-Emperor Sea Mount chain (pink lines).
Acknowledgement: I thank J. Hutabarat of Indonesia for information about mud volcano in Java, Howard De Kalb for lineament data, and T. Yano for information on continental rocks in the Indian Ocean. Patrick Joseph of Seychelles National Oil Company kindly provided the author with exploration data of the Seychelles Plateau. Discussion with Vadim Anfiloff was helpful. David Pratt’s editorial review greatly improved the quality of this paper.
References cited
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United Nations, 2006. Environmental assessment: Hot mud flow East Java, Indonesia. UNEP/OCHA Environment Unit. 52p.
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Willimas, Q. and Revenaugh, J., 2005. Ancient subduction, mantle eclogite, and the 300 km seismic discontinuity. Geology, v. 33, p. 1-4.
Yeates, A.N., Bradshaw, M.T., Dickins, J.M, Brakel, A.T., Exon, N.F., Langford, R.P., Mulholland, S.M, Totterdell, J.M. and Yeung, M., 1986. The Westralian Superbasin: An Australian link with Tethys. Intern. Symp. on Shallow Tethys 2, Wagga Wagga, p. 199-213.
Admin:
34 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 45, December, 2007
A NEW HYPOTHESIS FOR EARTH LITHOSPHERE EVOLUTION James G. A. CROLL Professor of Civil Engineering University College London, London WC1 E 6BT, England j.croll@ucl.ac.uk
ABSTRACT: The past 50 years have seen a profound shift in the modelling of the processes believed to have shaped the continental and oceanic crust of our planet, with Plate Tectonics (PT) now providing an almost universally accepted paradigm. There are however, increasingly acknowledged problems with the PT model. This paper briefly summarises what appear to be some of the more substantial areas of weakness of PT. It then outlines a new hypothetical model that seemingly overcomes these weaknesses.
___It argues that long period fluctuations in the levels of insolation energy, similar to those thought to be responsible for the ice ages, are directly and indirectly the cause of major changes in the thermal conditions within the crust. Widespread changes in the disposition of surface water and ice result in temporal and spatial variations in the insulation to both the inward flow of solar radiation energy and particularly the outward flow of geothermal energy. The results are significant fluctuations in the thermal conditions within the crust, with the associated restraints to lateral expansion and contraction inducing massive ternations of tension and compression loading. This cycle of thermal loading is suggested to act as a form of tectonic pump, driving the many processes currently explained by PT.
Most of the known characteristics of the Earth’s lithosphere can be explained by this dynamic model, and, significantly, it will be demonstrated how this new model is capable of resolving many paradoxes of PT and especially might help to explain the processes that cause long term vertical movement of both continental and ocean crust.
Keywords: contraction, expansion, lithosphere, tectonic forces, thermal energy, lithosphere, dynamics
BACKGROUND
From the author’s perspective, outwith [without?] the earth sciences, it would appear that plate tectonics (PT) has become the almost universally accepted paradigm. It seems to explain what it was in the past that shaped the Earth’s crust and presently continues to drive the dynamic processes determining the relationships between the continental land masses and the oceans. To pick up virtually any textbook underpinning curricula in the earth sciences around the world there seems to be a consistent and it has to be said compelling model being promulgated (see for example: McLeish, 1992; Skinner and Porter, 1995; Spencer, 1977; Wicarder and Monroe, 1999). Even if there is still lack of clarity and agreement as to what is actually providing the driving force, there appears to be relatively few who question the basic validity of the PT model. At first sight the growing body of evidence does seem to be overwhelming in support of the PT model, as illustrated by for example the very easy to read and excellent summary of the evidence by Sullivan (1991). The topological fits between the continental shelves on opposing sides of the various oceans would seem to be too close for pure chance. That the sediments immediately above the first basalt layers get older as the distances from the mid-oceanic “spreading zone” increase, strongly supports the idea of new ocean crust being formed from an upwelling of magma into the fissures being created when the “plates” are torn apart. Evidence of matching bands of new crust either side of the “spreading zone”, located in time by changes in magnetic signatures that have been locked-in when the magma solidified, is by many considered the pivotal evidence that the “plates” are being prised apart to allow the creation of new mid-ocean crust. The concentrations of seismic and volcanic activity around the spreading zones and their complementary “subduction zones”, where the newer ocean crust is thought to be pushed beneath the relatively older continental crust, is consistent with the fundamental ideas of PT. So too are the some of the matches in certain floral and faunal fossil remains within the continental crusts on opposing sides of oceans, believed to have once formed part of a larger continental land mass split asunder by the processes of PT. In some cases there are even matches in existing living species on continents too far apart to have allowed natural spreading. All of this and much other carefully gathered evidence provide a model that is beguiling in its simplicity and convincing in its consistency. And yet there are increasingly recognised factors that do not seem to fit into this apparently self-consistent and compelling model. In the following some of the serious geological evidence that does not appear to fit in with the basic ideas of PT will be briefly summarised. This critique has relied upon the excellent summaries of critics such as Meyerhoff et al. (1996). It has also been bolstered by the increasing body of evidence being presented by Choi, Dickins, Smoot et al. in the publication New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter (NCGT), an e-publication explicitly set-up to allow the airing of evidence that is contrary to the ideas of plate tectonics and which it seems has too often been suppressed by the dominant publications in the field. Pratt (2000) has provided an easy to read and much more extensive summary of much of this contrary evidence. Some of the alternative explanations that have been put forward for the source of energy required to drive the dynamic processes that have so clearly influenced the evolution of the Earth’s crust will also be briefly touched upon. However, the main purpose of this note is to put forward an alternative model for the processes that might in the past have been at work and which continue to shape the Earth’s crust. It will be argued that this new model is not only able to account for most of the processes and observations currently cited as evidence in support of PT but is also seemingly able to overcome most of its identified serious deficiencies.
___In particular, this new model will be demonstrated to be consistent with the evidence that vertical crustal motions are and have been as critical as horizontal motions in shaping our planet. Furthermore, the horizontal movements required for this new explanation are considerably less than those needed for PT. At temporal and spatial scales many orders less it will be suggested that similar dynamic processes continue to form periglacial environments both on Earth and some of the other planets and their satellites within the solar system.
SOME PROBLEMS WITH PLATE TECTONICS
Reassembling the continental jigsaw puzzle: One of the factors that first excited attention to the possibility of continental drift, and the rifting apart of early super-continents to form the present disposition of land masses, was the remarkably close fit that appears to exist between the shapes of the eastern seaboard of the Americas and the western coastline of Africa and Europe. Sophisticated topological fits have been proposed, vast numbers of papers written and conferences have been dedicated to the task of perfecting the levels of fit achieved by these models. Sceptics have on the other hand questioned many aspects of these fits (Voisey, 1958).
___It would seem that although there is strong geological evidence for plate movements of up to a few hundred kilometers (Jeffreys, 1976) there is little to support the notion that the crustal plates have moved upwards of 9000 km as required by PT. There are it appears also rather too many inconsistencies in the various fits for this evidence to be taken as definitive proof of PT. As highlighted by Meyerhoff et al. (1974), there are at least 3.5 million square kilometres that fail to fit in with the Bullard et al. (1965) computer generated emergence of the Americas, Africa and Europe from the super continent of Pangaea. It seems there are similar difficulties arising from the supposed break-up of Gondwanaland in the southern hemisphere, as postulated by Smith and Hallam (1970) and Dietz and Holden (1970), to account for the formation of the southern land masses of the Antarctic, Australia and the highly mobile India. India is supposed to have dislodged itself from Gonwanaland and been propelled on a 9000 km northward journey to collide with the Asian plate with such force as to form the Himalayan mountain range. It appears however, there is very strong geological and palaeontological evidence that India has been an integral part of Asia well before its hypothesised northward journey from Antarctica and Australia (Chatterjee et al., 1986; Ahmad, 1990; Meyerhoff et al., 1991) with which it shares very little floral and faunal similarities.Indeed, as Pratt (2000) so eloquently puts it, “the supposed ‘flight of India’ is no more than a flight of fancy”. ___Biogeographic boundaries based upon floral and faunal distributions that would follow from PT models are often in strong contradiction with those actually existing. Indeed, it would appear that the known palaeontological data on the distribution of fossils is rather more consistent with current distributions of continental land mass than those upon which PT is predicated (Smiley, 1992).
In a major global study based upon floral and faunal distributions, Meyerhoff et al. (1996) concluded that current biogeographical boundaries are seriously out of step with the boundaries that would be anticipated from plate tectonic models. They comment that “what is puzzling is that such major inconsistencies between plate tectonic postulates and field data, involving as they do boundaries that extend for thousands of kilometers, are permitted to stand unnoticed, unacknowledged, and unstudied”. It seems that all is not as simple as is often suggested.
Ocean sediment age: A fundamental notion in PT is that of sea-floor spreading. In this process new oceanic crust is created around the oceanic ridges, or “spreading zones”, where molten material from the Earth’s interior is extruded up into fissures caused by the tearing apart of the plates. This new crust is characterised as gradually moving across the ocean floor, like a “conveyor belt”, until it comes into contact with the relatively thicker continental crust.
___At these collision zones the relatively thinner oceanic crust is said to be forced down into trenches, “subduction zones”, where the newer oceanic crust is lost back into the molten interior.
If these notions are correct then one would anticipate the sedimentary layers deposited upon this new ocean crust to increase in age the further one moves away from the spreading zone. Very extensive deep sea drilling programmes have been undertaken to test this hypothesis, with seemingly great success. It was found in a NSF study (1969-73) that the ages of sediments immediately overlying the first basalt rock, supposed to be the new ocean crust being forced out from the spreading zone, do indeed display a gradual increase in age as the distance from the spreading zone increases.
___Once again, however, there appear to be grounds for supposing that the evidence on sea-floor geology has been chosen selectively to support the hypotheses of PT. Smoot et al. (1995) have demonstrated that most of the published charts showing the ocean floors have been drafted using the data that supports the ideas of PT. They suggest that much of the accurate information currently available has been ignored because it is at odds with the notions of PT. For example, they show that from side-scanning radar images there is evidence that the mid-oceanic ridges are cut with thousands of long and straight, ridge parallel, fissures and fractures that have older crustal rock between them. There are also numerous areas in all the oceans of the world where seabed rock, of continental origin and up to 3.74 Ga in age, are located where PT would suggest the rock should be of an age at least 2 orders of magnitude younger (Timofeyev, 1992; Udintsev, 1996). Dickins et al. (1992) undertook a detailed survey of the evidence relating to the existence of large continental crust within the present oceans, and concluded that “we are surprised and concerned for the objectivity of science that such data should be overlooked or ignored”. There are also strong and well founded suspicions that had the deep sea drilling boreholes been able to penetrate through the first layers of basalt, older sedimentary layers would be found to overlay possibly even older horizontal layers of basalt.
On the basis of the above cited survey, Dickins et al. (1992) opined that “there is a vast need for future Ocean Drilling Program initiatives to drill below the base of the basaltic floor crust to confirm the real composition of what is currently designated oceanic crust”. As will be argued later there are other possibly more convincing models for how these finds on sedimentary age could be explained.
Magnetic anomaly evidence: It has been claimed that stripes of newly formed oceanic crust roughly parallel to the spreading zones, display reversals in magnetic polarity that are reasonably symmetrical about the oceanic ridges (Sullivan, 1991). These magnetic signatures are believed to have been captured when the molten magma being extruded into the spreading zone solidified. For some curious reason these newly created widths of magnetised rock are believed to be split into equal halves and propelled off in opposite directions to create bands of magnetised rock that display symmetry about the spreading zones. It has been pointed out that the evidence of this symmetry and chronology of spreading, supporting PT, is rather less convincing than is sometimes implied. The licourice-allsort appearance of some of the text book summaries of this evidence fails to indicate the many serious anomalies.
___Magnetic stripes of magma intrusions display very imperfect symmetry, and indeed often occur in sequences that do not represent a linear time-wise evolution (Meyerhoff et al., 1974). The stripes often occur within seabed rock that is very much older and sometimes of continental origins (Grant, 1980; Choi et al., 1992), and furthermore these stripes have been shown to display anisotropy with depth. It would appear that here too much of the data is open to alternative explanations.
___Evidence of tension and compression: At many locations within the Earth’s crust there is evidence of both tensile and compressive actions having occurred at different times (Storetvedt, 1997). This is perhaps particularly in evidence at the mid-ocean “spreading zones” where the crust is supposed to be torn apart by a tension field normal to the stripe of new crust being formed by the intrusion of magma into the fissures. As previously observed these fissures occur in bands that are broadly parallel to the mid-oceanic ridge. And yet the existence of a ridge or mid oceanic mountain ranges, sometimes involving folded sedimentary deposits, is strongly suggestive of a compression field action normal to the ridge, and Antipov et al. (1990) have suggested that thrust faults adjacent to the mid-Atlantic ridge are more likely to have been caused by compression rather than tension. Fracture patterns are also suggestive of compression related failures in the vicinity of the spreading zone. Zoback et al. (1989) demonstrated that earthquake data at midoceanic ridges is more strongly supportive of compression action than as supposed by PT from tension behaviour. It would appear that alternations of both tension and compression actions are experienced in locations where PT would indicate steadily developing tensile failure.
Vertical tectonics: It should not take long for even an untrained geologist to become concerned about the fact that[/color]
___many of the highest continental mountain ranges and some of the most extensive continental plateaus are formed from sedimentary rock that was once laid down at the bottom of an ocean floor.
Often these vast regions are remote from any supposed plate boundaries or are within the interiors of continental crust (Beloussov, 1990; Chekunov et al., 1990). Equally, as observed above considerable areas of deep ocean floor are composed of rock whose palaeontological evidence alone indicates that it once formed part of a continental land mass (Spencer, 1977). PT appears to have only partially addressed these issues and seemingly would be hard pushed to provide an explanation for much of this very clear geological reality.
___That marine sediments and fossils can be found near the highest peaks of the Himalayas or that shallow sediments and even land based fossils can be recovered from the depths of ocean crust, are difficult to reconcile with existing notions that form part of PT (Spencer, 1977; Wezel, 1992). Explanations based upon changes in sea level, believed to be brought about by increased volumes of uplift at the mid-oceanic ridges, has been suggested by an acknowledged supporter of PT to be an inadequate explanation, and that the scale of these movements “fit poorly into plate tectonics” (van Andel, 1994).
SOME PAST EXPLANATIONS OF CRUSTAL DYNAMICS
There is convincing evidence that the Earth’s crust has undergone periodic changes with timescales, both very long measured in 100’s of Ma, and shorter measured in10’s or 100’s Ka. Over the very long term continents would on a periodic basis seem to sink to become ocean floors and ocean floors rise to become new continents. How many such cycles have occurred during the circa 4.5 Ga of the Earth’s existence and when exactly a significant crust of the form we know it today actually formed to make such movements possible, seem to be largely unresolved. However, it appears conceivable that the number of such very long-term cycles could be many. It also seems clear that the PT model, dominated as it is by the tangential motions of the crust, would find it difficult to explain the occurrence of these very long-term vertical tectonic cycles. Within these long-term geological cycles there seem to be other shorter timescale processes at work. These shorter period processes could be responsible for the alternations between compressive and tensile actions occurring within the crust. Before going on to outline a model that could provide an explanation for this dynamical system, involving as it appears to do both horizontal and vertical motions, accompanied by both tensile and compressive actions, it may be useful to consider some of the previously postulated explanations, other than PT, that have been advanced for the development of the Earth’s crust as we know it today. One major differentiation of Earth models is between those that take the line that what we see today has been the result of a gradual evolution in which the processes at work in the past should be evident from those that are at work today. This so called “uniformist” model contrasts with those that see the evolution in terms of more discrete and often cataclysmic changes. Among the latter were those that tried to explain the Earth as we find it today in terms of a Biblical flood. This idea, prevalent in the 18th and early 19th C, incorporated the growing recognition that the match between the coastlines of the Americas and Africa/Europe was due to a rifting apart of the Atlantic following the flood referred to in the Bible. Others have suggested that the spin-off of the Moon left a great hole in what is now the Pacific Ocean with the great void so created being filled by the splitting apart of Americas and Europe/Africa to form the Atlantic Ocean (this view is associated with George Darwin nephew of Charles). Various other ideas have included the colliding or near colliding bodies, taking different forms but including the idea that the gravity field generated by the Earth’s capture of the Moon developed at an early stage the forces needed to drag the continents towards the equator, creating enormous mountain building forces (Taylor, 1910). A variant was the idea that the close approach of Venus created the gravity field needed to drag the Moon from the Earth (Baker, 1914), with other orbital interactions being elaborated by Velikovsky (1950). In the former, more traditional, uniformist, view the models have included the shrinkage (contraction) model relying upon the idea that the shrinkage of the Earth’s interior against the crust created the compression forces needed to build mountains. This idea appears to have been first put forward by Newton (1681) using the analogy of the wrinkling of the skin of an ageing apple (must have come a few days after his gravity observations from the falling apple!). Jeffreys (1976) too has argued that since its inception the Earth as a whole has contracted while cooling. These models fail to account for the clear evidence that in certain places and during some periods, the crust has been and continues to be torn apart by tensile actions. To accommodate the very clear evidence of tensile stretching action, and at the other extreme, the expansion model advocates that the tearing apart of the oceans has been the result of a massive increase in the diameter. Carey (1958) argued that the diameter of the Earth could have been increased by as much as 100%. How these expansions occurred has been explained in a number of ways. It has been suggested that this expansion could have been caused by changes in phase or molecular composition of the Earth’s matter to less densely packed molecules, or on a more modest level through a gradual decline in the strength of the gravity force (Dicke, 1962). Each of these uniformist models fail to account for the massive compressions needed to either explain upward folding and mountain building or the downward folding to form ocean trenches. None of the models appear to be able to account for strong spatial and temporal evidence of periodic cycles of tension and compression being involved. An attempt to reconcile the clear evidence of periods of tension and other periods of compression, the mixed shrinkage and expansion, recognises that during the earliest period of the Earth’s formation the largely gaseous materials gradually changed phase to become liquid and some to eventually become solid. This gradual compaction of the molecules would have been accompanied by a massive decrease in the diameter of the Earth. When later these dense liquids and solids were broken-down into less compact molecular forms the volume would once again be increased. This latter period would cover the formation of the Earth’s crust, during which the breakdown in molecular forms would have started to produce the water that now forms such an important ingredient in the dynamics of the Earth. This view (see for example MacDonald, 1959) is attractive but is more concerned with the period prior to the dynamic crust of present interest. It would suggest however, that underlying any shorter periodicities there may continue to be a gradual expansion occurring as the average thickness of the crust and the associated volumes of free water and other low density molecules increase. Along similar lines the so called antimobilists believe that the Earth’s crust has been shaped by cycles of heating and cooling, causing expansion and contraction of the land masses. They took the opposite view to the mobilists who supported Wegener’s notions of continental plates in motion. The concept of a pulsating earth has also been advocated by Wezel (1992) and Dickins (2000).
___The truth, if and when found, will undoubtedly find that most of these models contain elements required to explain what has occurred.
It seems evident that certain phenomena are associated with sudden and cataclysmic changes. It seems equally clear that other phenomena have been the result of gradually emerging processes. It is also very clear that whether one adopts a steady state or a transient model, the evolution of the Earth’s crust has been and remains a highly dynamical process. There is strong evidence that at a given location the crust has at times experienced tensile action and at others compression. This is incompatible with either the uniformist view or many of the prevailing notions of the nature of the Earth as a dynamical system. There is also unquestionable evidence that the various regions of the Earth’s crust have experienced, on a periodic basis, major changes in vertical elevation, which is also at odds with most of the past models including PT. What therefore might be an alternative model that could explain all of the essential processes known to have taken place and which continue to take place in the shaping of the Earth’s crust?
A NEW MODEL OF CRUSTAL DYNAMICS
While it might at first sight seem of peripheral relevance to the modelling of crustal dynamics, the following aims to clarify how a fascination with the effects of solar induced thermal cycles on the development of various surface morphological features may provide an alternative dynamic model of how some features of the earth’s crust have evolved.
Surface morphologies and solar cycles: Drying mud develops well recognised crack polygonal forms, similar to those shown in Figure 1. In this case the energy release associated with the tension fields developed during the restrained shrinkage is maximised by the development of the characteristic polygonal forms. In a similar way the
==Figure 1. Polygonal crack patterns developed in drying mud.
cooling of asphalt pavements can result in the development of characteristic polygonal crack networks, which often develop into permanent forms of pavement failure. During any period of cooling the asphalt layer will experience the build- up of in-plane tensile stress as a result of the constraint to the contraction that would otherwise occur. With asphalt being relatively brittle at low temperatures this tensile energy is commonly relieved by the development of polygonal crack networks which serve to maximise the release of the stored tensile energy. Any surface detritus entering the cracks will mean that they will not be fully closed when the asphalt sheet is heated, with the result that significant levels of compressive stress develop. Over many cycles of heating and cooling the asphalt under certain conditions is observed to develop the well known and serious form of pavement failure known as “alligator cracking” (Croll, 2006 & 2007c), like that shown in Figure 2. A closely related thermal ratchet process is widely recognised to be responsible for the development of ice-wedge polygons in areas of permafrost both on Earth (Lachenbruch, 1962; Mackay and Burn, 2002), and also on the frozen regions of other planets and their satellites (Yoshikawa, 2000). Figure 3 shows some examples of terrestrial ice-wedge polygons in northern Canada. Just as for the asphalt polygonal cracks, the seasonal lowering of temperature will be associated with the development of tension stress fields within the permafrost due to the restraint to the contraction wanting to occur. With ice being
==Figure 2. Alligator cracking in asphalt pavement.
==Figure 3. Ice-wedge polygons in northern Canada.
weak in tension, patterns of fracture cracks will be generated that maximise the release of stored energy. These cracks will fill with moisture which will freeze so that upon warming the expansion strains will be restrained and almost immediately start developing compression stresses. The spatial scales of the ice-wedge polygons reflect the depth to which the annual seasonal thermal cycles penetrate into the frozen ground. Other forms of periglacial morphologies, such as stone and rock circles, polygons, nets, stripes, etc, see Figure 4, would appear to be driven by closely related but usually shorter term thermal cycles occurring within seasonally frozen ground or even the surface layers that undergo circadian cycles of freeze- thaw (Croll and Jones, 2006; Croll, 2008). (a) (b)
==Figure 4. Examples of (a) stone circles, and (b) stone polygons.
Under certain circumstances an asphalt layer when constrained by its interactions with its surroundings will when heated develop characteristic uplift bulges, such as those shown in Figure 5. Because during the warming phase the asphalt has relatively low elastic-visco-plastic stiffness, the in-plane compression induced uplift buckles will experience relatively high levels of creep. On account of the higher elastic-visco-plastic stiffness at low temperatures these uplift buckles will not be fully recovered when the temperature drops. Each cycle of increase and decrease in temperature above certain critical thresholds could be expected to result in a further ratcheting upward of the bulge deformation (Croll, 2005a & 2007b). It would appear that closely related mechanics could be involved in the initiation and growth of many other forms of periglacial morphologies.
==Figure 5. Asphalt bulges caused by cyclic thermal loading.
Around the periphery of the ice-wedge polygons shown in Figure 3, can be seen raised ramparts that result from the compression shoving accompanying the outward expansion during the heating phase of the seasonal cycle. The possibility that the seasonal thermal cycle could be contributing to the upward growth of pingos in areas of recently aggrading permafrost, was first discussed (Croll, 2004) in the context of theoretical mechanics. Typical pingos are shown in Figure 6. The mechanics for their growth as a result of seasonal thermal cycles, has been elaborated
==Figure 6. A pair of pingos emerging from permafrost in northern Canada.
(Croll, 2005b) and extended to other forms of seasonal and perennial periglacial surface mound formations (Croll, 2006 & 2007a,d), some of which are shown in Figure 7.
___For each of these uplift bulge formations, the growth mechanism relies upon the ice or ice rich ground being strong in compression but weak in tension. Tension cracks formed when the frozen ground contracts upon cooling will attract moisture which will turn to ice. This means that like the ice-wedge polygons the cracks will not be fully closed when the frozen ground is warmed. Under certain conditions the significant in-plane compression stresses associated with the restrained thermal expansion will be sufficient to induce a form of uplift, ratchet, and buckling.
This new view of how many surface morphologies develop is suggested to provide a model, albeit on different spatial and temporal scales, of some of the important long-term dynamical processes at work within the Earth’s crust.
==Figure 7. Hummocks formed within peat.
Thermal cycle of Earth’s crust: Changes in the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit around the sun together with the inclination and precession of the axis of spin relative to the orbital plane, are regarded as the chief sources of the massive changes in climate that have seen inter alia the periodic ice-ages. The Croll- Milankovic model is widely regarded as a major source, but by no means the only one, for the very large changes in level of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface (Croll, 1864; Milankovic, 1920), and as will be suggested in the following also responsible for associated large changes in temperature gradient through the earth’s crust. While the periodic ice ages over the past 2 Ma or so years are the most obvious symptoms of this cyclic process there is considerable evidence to suggest that similar cycles have been occurring, possibly with even more extreme variations in temperature, for very much longer than this. With periods of around Δ tp = 20 Ka for the cycle of changes in precession and Δ ti = 40 Ka for the cycle of inclination of the axis of spin, and around Δ to = 110 Ka for the changes of eccentricity of the elliptic orbit, the intensity of the temperature changes at a given location on the earth’s surface are expected to show a time dependence like that shown in Figure 8. It seems probable that average surface temperature changes of up to 20oC at periods of 20 to 110 Ka would penetrate deep into the Earth’s crust. Increasing
==Figure 8. Typical variations of average Earth surface temperatures.
the temperature through the earth’s crust will mean that the rock wants to expand laterally. However, the crust is restrained from lateral expansion by its interaction with the relatively stiff inner mantle and core. The level of lateral, or in-plane, compressive stress developed during the warming cycle will of course depend upon the average temperature increases and their profile within the crust. Similarly, high tensile stress would develop during the cooling phase of the thermal cycle. While direct changes in temperature due to fluctuations of insolation may be significant, it is probable that the indirect effects of these surface thermal cycles could exert even greater changes to the thermal regime within the crust. The changes in the disposition of surface water and ice accompanying the thermal cycles are likely to have even more profound effects. The proportion of incoming solar energy reflected back into space will be greatly effected by the build-up of surface snow and ice. Changes in sea level may alter ocean currents and cause major changes in the geothermal energy flux. Any associated build-up of continental ice sheets will also cause major changes to the degree of thermal insulation to the conduction of geothermal energy. These are likely to induce even more significant changes in thermal conditions within the earth’s crust. A sheet of continental ice will for example, significantly lower the rate of geothermal energy flow through the crust. This will be reflected by a lowering of the geothermal gradient as suggested in Figure 9. Over a period of time sufficient to re-establish thermal equilibrium this would result in very considerable reductions in temperature, which would become increasingly significant with depth. Alongside these temperature reductions would be massive lateral tensile stress fields building up as a result of the restraint to the in-plane contractions wanting to occur. Even at the elevated temperatures experienced at depth the relatively brittle nature of the rock would be expected to result in considerable seismic activity associated with the greater incidence of tensile and shear fractures relieving this tensile energy build-up. Similar effects could arise from any substantial changes in sea level. With one of the most significant sources of geothermal heat flow in the oceans arising from the convection processes associated with ocean currents, any change in this convection process will also be likely to affect the long term geothermal gradients. Were a long term lowering of sea level to occur, possibly as a result of ice build-up on the continental ice sheets, then constrictions to the ocean convection currents could result.
==Figure 9. Effects of increasing surface insulation on geothermal heat flux and geothermal gradient, and the resulting decreases in crustal temperature and associated development of tensile stress.
Due to perhaps ocean freezing or the development of land bridges any such constriction would severely reduce the flow of geothermal energy. A lowering of the geothermal gradient similar to that shown in Figure 9 would therefore be expected to induce very substantial decreases in deep crust temperature, with similar consequences for the build-up of tensile energy especially in the lower crust. Melting of the ice sheets and an associated rise of the sea level might be expected to have the opposite effects. As suggested in Figure 10 the steepened geothermal gradient occurring over very long time frames would cause substantial increases in temperature, especially at lower levels. Constraint of the expansions wanting to occur will induce massive additional levels of in-plane compression stress. This compressive energy would be expected to induce other forms of failure such as crushing, folding, shearing and uplift of the crust.
The effects of the thermal cycle: As suggested above long term fluctuations in surface temperature, arising from Earth’s interactions with the Sun, could as a result of the changes in the disposition of water and ice be greatly magnified by the interaction of these surface processes with the flow of geothermal energy. Moderate levels of surface warming could give rise to greatly magnified increases in temperature at depth, resulting in massive build-ups of inplane compressive stresses. Taking the rock of the crust to have a coefficient of thermal expansion of α =12.5x10- 6m/m/oC, then an increase in average surface temperature of say 20oC would if unrestrained induce a tensile strain of 250x10-6. Over a continental landmass of roughly circular shape, having an in-plane radius of say a=3000 km, this unrestrained expansion would give rise to an outward, in-plane, radial movement of 750 m. With similar outward movement of the adjacent crust a total of 1.5 km of relative motion would be available for distorting and crushing of the crust; significant potential for tectonic activities in each thermal cycle. But as discussed above the indirect effects of fluctuations of surface temperature could be even greater. As an indication of just how large these in-plane stresses and strains could be consider the effects of an increase of 200oC at a particular level, deep within the crust. Taking the rock at this level to have a coefficient of thermal expansion α =12.5x10-6m/m/oC, then the increase temperature of 200oC would, if unrestrained, induce a strain of 2.5x10-3. Again, over a continental landmass of roughly circular shape, having an in-plane radius of a=3000 km, this unrestrained expansion would give rise to an outward, in-plane, radial movement of around 7.5 km. If the adjacent landmass is being similarly deformed there would be a total relative in-plane motion of 15 km available to fold,
==Figure 10. Effects of decreasing surface insulation on geothermal heat flux and geothermal gradient, and the resulting increases in crustal temperature and associated development of compressive stress.
shear, or otherwise distort the earth’s crust when this crust is thermally loaded during the heating or compression cycle. Such distortions would undoubtedly occur selectively as will be discussed later. They could certainly account for the kinematics involved with upward folding or mountain building, or downward folding into trenches, or the shearing of crustal layers one over the other as appears to happen in many areas, including ocean trenches or so called “subduction” zones. The levels of distortion actually reached would in turn depend upon the forces needed to fail the particular volume of crust, whether by folding, shearing, or whatever. But with no failure to relieve the compressive strain of 250x10-6, required at the surface to restrain the outward expansion, or 2500x10-6 at depth, a relatively hard rock having an elastic modulus of E = 40x10+3 MPa, will develop compressive stresses of between 10 MPa (1000 ton for every 1 square meter of rock) and 100 MPa (10,000 ton for every 1 square meter of rock). While at the surface these levels of stress may be lower than those needed to crush the rock they could, when integrated over substantial thickness, certainly be sufficient to induce various forms of geometric failure such as folding and faulting. At lower levels the stresses could easily be enough to contribute to the crushing failure and other processes producing metamorphosis. The differential straining with depth could also be responsible for various forms of shear failure, particularly at relative weak sedimentary layers. During the warm-up phase the compressive related distortions and sudden releases of stored energy would be associated with compressive related failure modes, occurring when the strain build-up reaches the levels required for failure to be induced; they could be expected to be progressive and cumulative, and to occur at different locations at different times over the entire period of the warm-up. At the end of the warm-up period it might be anticipated that the greater part of the compressive energy will have been transferred into the distortions characterising the various failure modes, whether they be mountain building, crustal over-riding or downward folding to generate ocean trenches. By the start of the next cooling period the crust would consequently contain very little thermally derived residual compressive stress. As the crust cools during the cooling period it will want to contract. Being again prevented from doing so by the effectively rigid inner core and mantle, tensile stresses will be developed. This cooling period could be termed the tension cycle. Reversing the above scoping calculations, a drop in average temperature of 20oC will produce tensile stresses of around 10 MPa, which even at the surface would be sufficient to cause tensile cracking of the rock. At lower levels the greatly increased drops of temperature could open up massive fractures and rifts into which high pressure magma would be intruded. It is likely that the tensile fractures would be concentrated in those areas where the crust is at its weakest. With oceanic crust being apparently so much thinner than that of continental crust, at least in the present phase of the dynamic tectonic cycle to be elaborated later, it would be expected that most, but by no means all, of these fractures would be located on the ocean floors. While the dominant fractures might be anticipated to be largely polygonal, in order that energy release should be maximized, it is likely that the heterogeneity of the crust thickness will see the fracture patterns concentrated within oceanic crust and any weakened zones within the more massive continental crust.
HORIZONTAL TECTONICS
The periodic reversals of heating and cooling, and importantly the associated compression and tension cycles, seem to be consistent with the evidence upon which PT is predicated. With periods of 20 Ka to 110 Ka the crust, particularly at depth, will experience significant cycles of compression and tension. Figure 11 provides a cartoon of a typical cycle of heating and cooling. At the various times indicated in Figure 11(a), the stress state and the nature of the expected failure within the crust are shown in Figure 11(b). After a prolonged period of cooling and allowing for the time lag for the cold thermal wave to reach the lower crust, (1) the crust and especially the areas of relative weakness on the ocean bed will experience tensile fractures. Magma will be extruded into these fractures and spill out onto the seabed, forming new basaltic crust. Following the subsequent warming phase (2) the massive compressions would in each cycle propagate the failures such as folding and mountain building, or crustal over-riding and shear faulting or downward folding at oceanic trenches or “subduction” zones. At the end of the next cooling phase (3) these compression failure distortions would not be reversed by the development of tension forces. Instead, during the tensile phase extensive cracking and rifting could again be expected with, in many cases, molten magma being extruded into the tensile fissures. These progressive alternations of horizontal motion, driven by the thermal cycle, would for the same reason as the motions involved in the development of say ice-wedge polygons, result from the differential failures properties of rock in compression and tension.
==Figure 11. Long term thermal cycles producing cycles of crustal tension and compression with associated failure mechanisms.
New crust would be forming at the mid-oceanic rift or “spreading” zones or any other zones where tensile failures are concentrated, as suggested in Figure 11(b). This could appear as stripes of new basalt that may or may not be in a symmetric sequence about the “spreading” zone, and into which magnetic time signatures could be frozen. However, the present model would be entirely consistent with older, possibly continental crust, existing where PT would anticipate much younger sediments, as observed by Timofeyev (1992), Udintsev (1996) and Dickins et al. (1992), and for the magnetized basalt stripes to be interspersed with older rock, possibly of continental origin as recorded by Grant (1980) and Choi et al. (1992). It would also be entirely consistent with non-sequential and asymmetric stripes of magnetized basalt (Meyerhoff et al., 1974). It is these features that have been observed to be problematic with the PT model. Magma pillows extending from these mid-oceanic fractures could be expected during some of these extrusions, with a statistical probability that those spreading furthest would have occurred longest ago. Each of these pillows of magma, formed during one of the tension cycles, would be overlaid with sediments that would have accumulated over the subsequent compression (warming) cycles, during which the rates of fluvial erosion of the continental landmass would be at their highest. This would mean that the age of the sediment at the first basalt layer might become progressively older as the distance from the spreading zone increases. However, the present model would be consistent with the suspicions of Dickins et al. (1992) and many others that were deep sea drilling to penetrate through the first layer of basalt older sedimentary layers would be discovered beneath. Indeed, it might be anticipated that a succession of increasingly ancient alternating layers of basalt and sedimentary rocks would be found. Such a finding would be a serious embarrassment to PT, but a strong probability for the present cyclic expansion and contraction, compression and tension, model. At the mid-oceanic fracture or rift zones the heating period will lead to compression forces being developed in the now integral new crust. Under certain conditions these compressions will be enough to initiate local folding, shearing, faulting or general uplift of the crust. These uplifts or ridges would be expected to grow during each of the heating cycles, as suggested in Figure 11(b). It is one of the problem areas of PT that the ridges, characteristic of compression action, should occur where the spreading is said to result from a steady tensile rifting. No such problems occur in the present cyclic model. Over the 4.5 Ga or so of Earth’s existence, many thousands of thermal cycles will have been experienced. Some will have been very much more extreme than others, depending upon the particular forms of the orbit and spin characteristics. Many will have occurred prior to the formation of a significant crustal layer as we know it today. But the effects of these cycles could be likened to a thermal pump. Each heating (compression) cycle will lead to processes that tend to concentrate crust into folded mountains, mid-oceanic ridges, or over-riding shear and folding typical at the trenches or so-called subduction zones. In each cooling (tension) cycle the distortions from these compression failures will not be reversed, but, as a result of the differential properties of rock in tension and compression, will result in tension fractures, shear dislocations and rifts opening up to be intruded with magma that upon solidification forms new crust. By this means a new, integral, crust will present itself for the process to be continued during the next heating (compression) cycle. The process is closely analogous to the processes controlling the development of ice-wedge polygons in permafrost, Mackay et al. (2002), the behaviour recently hypothesized for pingo development, Croll (2004) and also that recently described for certain motions of glacial ice, Croll (2007e). In each of these cases it is the water rather than the molten magma that solidifies after filling the tension cracks. But in all these and other cases the thermal ratchet has its origins in the different failure properties of the materials in tension and compression, and of course the different periodicities of the thermal cycles brought about by the Earth’s interaction with the Sun.
VERTICAL TECTONICS
In the circa 4.5 Ga years it has taken to develop the Earth’s crust and its associated water volume, the average thickness and therefore the volume of the crust has been gradually increasing. It might be safe to assume that over a shorter time frame, measured in terms of say a few million years, the crustal volume remains effectively constant. Hence, the cyclic creation of new crust, often near mid-oceanic “spreading zones”, must be balanced by the loss of older crust. However, this does not necessitate a model envisioned by PT where the new crust is being continuously pushed out only to be lost again in subduction zones by being thrust back down into the molten magma. Instead, the present model suggests a very different form of mass balance that could help to explain the very long period vertical motions experienced by both continental and sea floor crust. It could provide an explanation for why ocean floors sink and become thinner, and then build-up, rise and become continents again, only to be eroded and sink back to become ocean floor. Vertical movements of continental and oceanic crust are clearly on time scales that are orders of magnitude greater than the periodic thermal cycle described above in terms of the ratchet action driving horizontal motions. Whereas the latter can be measured in 100’s of thousands of years the vertical motions would appear to occur at time scales of one to two orders of magnitude greater. That being so many hundreds of thermal cycles could go into the development of the vertical motions of crust. However, it will be suggested that at least some of the driving force for these vertical motions could also derive from the thermal cycles arising from the changes in orbital eccentricity and axis of spin of the Earth. The following briefly describes how the thermally derived components of this driving mechanism might work. As discussed above even a moderate drop in surface temperature leading to the growth of a continental ice sheet will, in addition to the simple increase in weight of the overburden, result in considerably larger decreases in temperature at the lower levels of the crust. As suggested in Figure 9 this change in thermal regime could give rise to aggradation of solidified magma at the lower crust boundary. With this solidified magma having a lower density than the magma from which it derived, buoyancy considerations would suggest that this lower surface aggradation would produce a rise of the upper surface of the crust. Whether the rise due to lower surface aggradation of crust would be greater than the fall due to increased ice overburden would be dependent upon the thermal conductivity and the thickness of the crust and the ice overburden. An additional factor that could influence the rise and fall would be the strain state associated with the cyclic changes in thermal regime within the crust. The large drops in temperatures at the lower levels would, if no tension fractures occurred, result in build-up of tension stress having a profile similar to that shown in Figure 12(a). This would be equivalent to loading the crustal plate with a resultant tensile force and a moment which will tend to deform the plate into a downward concave shape, as shown in Figure 12(b). Tensile fractures relieving these stresses would be greatest at the lower surface of the crust so that any intrusion of magma that subsequently solidifies would tend to lock-in the downward deformation, of the crust giving rise to a general lowering of the upper surface of the crust. Again, the relative importance of these thermally induced stress fracture effects would be dependent upon the nature of the crust.
==Figure 12. How long term crustal cooling would generate average tensile forces that could contribute to the vertical depression of crust.
Surface warming could be expected to have the opposite effects upon the rise and fall of crust. The loss of ice overburden would as is generally recognized to have been occurring in Scandinavia following the most recent ice age, produce an uplift of the crust. The thermal effects discussed above could in contrast add to this inter-glacial rebound or give rise to a lowering of the upper surface of the crust. As discussed in Figure 10 the non-uniform heating of the crust could result in remagmafication of crustal material at the lower boundary. Due to the increased density of the magma this would be anticipated to result in thinning and sinking of the crust. In contrast, and as suggested in Figure 13, the non-uniform increases in temperature with depth would give rise to compressive stresses that are greatest at the lower boundary. To accommodate the failures and enhanced creep at the lower levels of the crust associated with the higher compressive stresses and the higher visco-plastic strains, an upward dishing of the crust is likely to occur. This upward deformation could be thought of as a form of upheaval buckling induced by the high compressive force and its eccentricity encouraging an upward deformation. So the thermal effects could either be adding to the rebound during an inter- glacial, or under different conditions working to produce a sinking of the crust. Similar effects would be experienced within oceanic crust being subjected to major changes in its thermal regime as a result of perturbations in the surface temperature and any associated changes in the thermal insulation. Over large numbers of thermal cycles a number of possible outcomes could occur. Possibly triggered by a prolonged period of cold surface conditions, ocean crust could gradually rise or fall and not be recovered by say a shorter intervening period of warm surface conditions. The reverse would be true of prolonged periods of warm surface conditions followed by shorter intervening periods of cold. In this regard it is interesting to speculate that the Earth’s rate of spin at different times of its 4.5 Ga history may have been very different to what it is today. Might there have been geological epochs during which Earth may have almost ceased spinning and even undergone reversals in direction? Such changes could start to account for very considerable antipodal differences in the thermal gradients through the Earths crust. With the associated prolonged periods of either intense cold or heating it would be possible to envisage a situation where crust becomes intensely heated on one side of Earth and intensely cold at the antipode. This could possibly account for the well recorded observation that continental crust and oceanic crust have a strong tendency to occur as antipodal opposites.
==Figure 13. How long term crustal warming would generate average compressive forces that could contribute to the vertical elevation of crust.
Potentially massive changes in thermal energy within the earth’s crust have been suggested to give rise to tectonic forces capable of producing either rises or falls of both ocean and continental crust. Once again the mechanisms for the alternations of thermal energy have been suggested to derive from the long term cycles of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface and magnification of the thermal regimes brought about by the consequential changes in the levels of surface insulation to the outflow of geothermal energy. Credible mechanisms have been described which under certain conditions would be expected to result in a long term rise of oceanic crust to eventually become continental crust and vice versa. That such vertical motions have occurred is fairly clear from the evidence available. It is the failure to explain such vertical changes in crustal disposition and indeed its assumption that they have generally not occurred that is one of the major shortcomings of PT as currently formulated.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
It has been suggested that there are some fundamental problems with plate tectonics (PT), the now dominant paradigm that underpins much of current geologic thinking. Most of these problems are overcome by a new model that attributes the tectonic forces required to drive the formation of the Earth’s crust to the periodic changes in thermal conditions. Some of these thermal changes are suggested to derive from variations in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun and to a lesser extent the periodic changes in the orientation of the Earth’s axis of spin relative to the orbital plane. Restraint of the expansions wanting to take place when the crust warms will induce massive compressive forces. During the cooling cycle these same restraints will act to induce a dominantly tension field. This cycle of thermal loading has been suggested to act like a form of tectonic pump driving the many processes currently explained by PT. But importantly, it has been reasoned that this new model is capable of resolving many paradoxes of PT and in particular could help to resolve the issue upon which PT is noticeably silent, namely, the processes that cause long term vertical movement of both continental and ocean crust (“plates”). This cyclic, thermal, model has been shown to be capable of explaining: the vertical upheaval of thickened oceanic floor to form continental land masses; the vertical depression of eroded continents to form new ocean floors; the formation of mid-oceanic mountain chains often adjacent to mid-oceanic rifts and “spreading zones”; and the processes whereby mountains continue to be formed on continental land masses. While direct evidence to prove or disprove this new model would appear to be unavailable, its consistency with much of what is known would seem to recommend it for serious consideration. Future evidence may show that it is incorrectly founded. This risk is surely outweighed by the consideration that the present model is already known to be at odds with too much fundamental empirical data to be retained. We are clearly in need of fresh thinking. It is hoped that this contribution could form part of this fresh thinking.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: Presentation of this paper at the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, European Conference, Athens, 17-20 November, 2007, was made possible by a Leverhulme Research Fellowship grant number RF/RFG/2006/0087. This support is gratefully acknowledged.
REFERENCES
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26 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 42, March, 2007
THE ENIGMA OF THE DEAD SEA TRANSFORM LEGEND
BUILT ON AUTOMATIC CITATIONS: PART 1
... The Rifts Fallacy
The first page of another 1970 Freund publication was also found on the internet and reveals that while he helped establish the Dead Sea Transform legend, he also warned the Red Sea could not be opened by ignoring what was then known as the big Afar triangle (Fig. 4):
Nature 228, 453 (31 October, 1970); doi:10.1038/228453a0
Plate Tectonics of the Red Sea and East Africa
RAPHAEL FREUND
Department of Geology, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
I WOULD like to comment on some of the assumptions and results of a recent letter by McKenzie et al. They reconstruct the pre-movement position of Arabia and Africa by fitting the two coast lines of the Red Sea, assuming that the entire space between the coasts is occupied by newly formed oceanic crust. This assumption ignores the existence of the Danakil horst, which consists of continental crust (Pre-Cambrian, Jurassic) and which is some 80 km wide, in between these two coast lines in the southern Red Sea depression. It seems impossible to close the gap of the Red Sea without leaving the space required for this continental block.
These words were the pivotal moment in the whole history of Plate Tectonics, but Circus Maximus ignored this crucial warning and proceeded to pick the lock at the mouth of the Red Sea. In fact, their darkest secret was that the Red Sea must be seen to be opening wide and connecting with the Mediterranean, otherwise the whole region is a closed system and the axe of oceanization hangs over their heads (Fig. 5).
So the Red Sea had to be a rift and the dark continent of Africa was then perfect for establishing the illusion of forking rifts (Fig. 6) where nobody could possibly suspect the existence of forking ENIGMAS (Fig. 7).
Despite plentiful signs of the ENIGMA in the form of triangles (Fig. 8) and all over the 1976 Gravity Map of Australia (Fig. 9), the illusion of the forking rift spread from Africa right around the world to become the biggest fiasco in the history of man's intellectual endeavours and far too hot for the media in 1999 and 2004.
While the biggest offset in Australia is quite small (Fig. 10), the 105 km shift along the DST was needed to confirm that the whole Levant was on the move, that the Red Sea was about to open, and Africa was about to be torn apart, yet there was not a scrap of evidence of this actually happening anywhere on the planet, despite “finding” many platelets. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 42, March, 2007 31
Figure 5. The utter absurdity of Plate Tectonics was obvious decades ago. The Mediterranean and Red Sea are really zones of closed subsidence being reworked by oceanization, and access has been produced by waterfalls cutting through basement ridges at Gibraltar and Istanbul. Gibraltar means that all the inland seas were caused by oceanization and Continental Drift is a giant farce.
Figure 6. In the land of multiple illusions, opening the Red Sea was a fiasco as it was always obvious the Afar end is completely closed and locked. The high elevation (left) is shown in red and contains the best known rifts of east Africa. The cartoon (center) impatiently anticipates the rifting away of this whole section, yet there is no evidence for any actual opening in any continent, and the fallacy that African rifts fork (right) makes this a mega fiasco. 32 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 42, March, 2007
Figure 7. Rifts were invented by Plate Tectonics in the dark data-less continent of Africa. The initial concepts were wildly spurious and varied from tension to compression and even oscillations. In Australian gravity ENIGMA ridges fork (bottom left), and the forking African rift (bottom right) is an illusion which explains why they have all failed to open and why no continent has ever broken up (Anfiloff, 1989).
Figure 8. The illusion of the forking African rifts hides the ENIGMA. The compression-driven compartmentalized Polycyclic Rifting process (Anfiloff, 1992) shows how bifurcating ridges weave in and out of a row of triangular troughs and is the bane of oil exploration. But the term “rift” should now be completely removed from the lexicon of tectonics!New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 42, March, 2007 33
Figure 9. The difference between African rift tectonics and Australian ENIGMA triangle tectonics needs to be investigated. The crux of the Plate Tectonics illusion lies in the complete absence of any continent actually breaking apart cleanly anywhere in the world despite the finding of numerous “platelets”. They often slice through triangles but no offsets are to be seen anywhere along these alleged cracks in the crust. Nor does the ENIGMA involve much offset in the formation of its triangles which have a very specific slope towards the ridge (Fig. 8).
Figure 10. This is the only tangible offset in the magnetics of Australia and it does not continue into the Yilgarn Shield.
Nor was there any evidence of an incipient opening process in any deep penetrating geophysical data, and after a dozen big fiascos, all this culminated decades later in the tectonic banana fiasco (Fig. 11). This figure shows where Plate Tectonics started and ended, and the grist of all the fiascos in between lies in the difference between Africa and Australia (Fig. 9). To avoid this, Circus Maximus has used transforms to slice tectonic triangles down the middle as if they are cucumbers, without showing any offsets, and without explaining why they even exist (Fig. 12).
Two of these triangular cucumbers were eventually studied in detail and they called them pull-apart basins but that only created more fiascos and points to an underlying problem which Plate Tectonics could not solve: the subduction contradiction.
The Nemah fiasco
The new generation has never seen a vertical tectonic structure because they were deleted from schools and even books on oil exploration. This culminated in the Nemah fiasco. More than a decade after the complete ENIGMA was revealed (Anfiloff, 1992), oil explorers still have no idea they are standing on top of one on the Nemah Ridge and that the whole of the legendary Mid Continent Rift is really a string of highly evolved ENIGMAS (Fig. 13).
This again shows the fiasco of the big rift model illusion in Figure 11 which while taught all over the internet, has never been tested anywhere with real data.
The GPS fiasco
For decades the DST legend was never properly tested and was propped up by the automatic citation process. Then GPS measurements of creep created the insidious merry-go-round of the locked fault, whose logic is: we know the whole thing was moving, but it paused while we were measuring it!
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ORAL SESSION
Morning session Co-Chairs: S. T. Tassos, K. Storetvedt and D. Choi
Introductory Remarks: Karsten Storetvedt
Five Para-Myths and One Comprehensive Proposition in Geology: The Solid, Quantified, Growing and Radiating Earth
Stavros T. Tassos, Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, PO Box 200 48, Athens 118 10
Greece, phone: +30 210 34 90 169, s.tassos@gein.noa.gr
Five propositions in Geology, namely Plate Tectonics, Constant Size Earth, Heat Engine Earth, Elastic Rebound, and the Organic Origin of Hydrocarbon Reserves are challenged as Para-Myths because their potential truth is not confirmed by Observation, and/or Experiment, and/or Logic. In their place the Excess Mass Stress Tectonics - EMST, i.e., a Solid, Quantified, Growing and Radiating Earth and its implications, such as the Inorganic Origin of Hydrocarbons, claims to be a
Comprehensive Proposition.
Space is the infinite source of all mass that becomes measurable as energy - unpaired standing or travelling waves and matter-paired standing waves, i.e., waving space itself at 299792458 m/s. Energy and matter are sine waveforms of local anisotropy in the elastic, large-scale isotropic continuum, which is lossless and has infinite elasticity to any velocity < light speed, and infinite rigidity at vc. Gravity is tension and its inverse quantity is ‘mass'-space density. All wave-particles contain a constant quantum of tensional elastic potential, irrespective of wavelength, as per E=hf. Due to constant linear stretching, the total tensional elastic energy (E), i.e., frequency, raises proportionally counteracting entropic dissipation, whilst local space density (m), inversely and proportionally increases, as one entity, thus the constancy of the square root of their ratio. In the context of Excess Mass Stress Tectonics – EMST, Earth is a quantified solid black body that appears to grow with time. Earth's inner core is an equilibrium high-tension/high-frequency location, wherein energy-unpaired standing or travelling waves transform into matter-paired standing waves, so that the conservation principle is not violated. Form new elements, i.e., ‘Excess Mass', which are added atom-by-atom, the greater bulk concentrically, whereas the ‘active' part rises in the cold and increasingly rigid with depth mantle, as the seismic wave velocity data indicate. Upon oxidation-decompression the reduced form releases its ‘excess' electrons. Iron with the highest nuclear binding energy of 8.8 MeV should be the last element to form; thus the absence of true oceanic crust older than 200 m.y. High temperatures and melting are local and episodic phenomena, sourced by radiant heat, i.e., electron resonance in 10-6 m micro-cracks at 1014 Hz, at depths lower than 5 km; the maximum depth horizontal micro-cracks can remain permanently open. In the context of Excess Mass Stress Tectonics – EMST, hydrocarbons are energy sources produced abiotically through a process whereby hydrogen and carbon, but also oxygen, nitrogen, sulphur and trace-elements being formed in the Earth's core, rise through radial fracture trails in the solid and cold mantle to the Earth's surface. If their rise is blocked compose bigger compounds, e.g., kerogen, that can transform by radiant heat in the upper 5 km or so of the Earth's interior, into gas, oil and coal, at temperatures <200, 100-50, and <50oC, respectively. In the absence of trapping and/or above 200oC, the temperature at which porphyrins are destroyed, they are released as methane gas, like in Titan today, and/or are fully oxidized to CO2 and H2O. Oil and gas reserves mature in basins adjacent to deformed Precambrian shields and platforms, mostly during the last 200 m.y., when wide and deep oceans and a complex pattern of uplifts and sedimentary basins developed, thus providing the reservoirs and the structural and/or stratigraphic traps. They associate with moderate seismic and volcanic activity, free-air gravity, geoidal, and heat flow anomalies, and large igneous provinces, i.e., Excess Mass. 62 New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 45, December, 2007 Depending on the “virtual” temperature gradient and in the absence of migration, gas, oil and coal should be found at greater, intermediate, and shallower depths, respectively. For example, with 200oC at 4 km depth, temperature gradient 50oC/km, thermal conductivity 2 W/m.oC, and heat flow 100 mW/m2 gas, oil, and coal should be found at about 3, <2, and <1 km, respectively.
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New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, V. 4, No. 3, September 2016. www.ncgt.org 353
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Dear Editor,
Inertia-triggered global tectonic stresses and polar wander
In recent letters (NCGT 2015, p. 104-105; 2016, p. 3-4), Peter James has speculated on whether the driving forces invoked to operate my global Wrench Tectonics – the sum of inertial effects caused by Earth’s variable rotation – indeed are strong enough for having a noticeable effect on Earth’s surface structure. Based on his geotechnical experience he apparently regards my inferred inertia-triggered torque hopelessly inadequate for the task –allegedly pointing to “the enormous forces that would be required to twist a continental unit like Australia”. Nevertheless, numerous GPS velocity studies demonstrate that Australia is in fact currently undergoing relatively fast counter-clockwise torsion – consistent with the inferred system of latitude-dependent inertial ‘crustal’ wrenching (cf. Storetvedt and Longhinos, 2014; Storetvedt, 2015). Furthermore, Peter James alleges that I have discussed rotation of Australia in Devonian/Carboniferous times, but this allegation is wrong. Crustal wrenching, giving rise to episodic inertial rotation of continental blocks, is only a feature of the last 100 million years (or so) of Earth history. The rotational instability of the modern continents, which are still taking place, apparently began as a dynamo-tectonic consequence of accelerated processes of crustal oceanization and deep sea formation which was the prerequisite of the Alpine tectonic revolution.
The superdeep Kola drill hole (to a depth of some 12 km) gave the surprising results that fracture spacing increases exponentially versus depth in the upper crust, and similar unexpected observations have been obtained in the 9 km deep crustal drilling site in SE Germany (KTB). A most unexpected discovery of the two continental sections was that the characteristic system of open fractures was filled with hydrous fluids which, under pressure and temperature conditions predicted for the middle and lower crust, would be in its strongly buoyant supercritical state (cf. Storetvedt, 2013 for references and discussion); hence, the strong buoyancy of supercritical hydrous fluids is likely to be the main cause of the increasing fracture volume versus depth in the continental crust. In fact, it appears that the crust does not represent a solid carapace but constitutes rather a highly fractured and increasingly fluid/gas-filled cover layer. Thus, even for the upper crust, the shear strength is likely to be much lower than what traditionally has been assumed. Accordingly, conventional estimates of tectonic twisting forces are clearly outdated; such guesses have little, if any, significance.
In an earlier paper in this journal (Storetvedt, 2011), I took a critical look at the origin and development mode of the Earth. I concluded that “The Earth is apparently still in a relatively un-degassed state, which may be the very reason for its ceaseless dynamo-tectonic activity. Furthermore, the physico-chemical struggle towards internal equilibrium may be expected to have resulted in episodic reworking of the primitive surface layer – in accordance with the variegated [and jerky] geological history”. According such a development scheme, reorganization of the interior mass must have given rise to periodic changes of the Earth’s moments of inertia – including events of true polar wander, which are likely to have been a principal dynamic driver of the planet’s pulse-like geological history. An event of true polar wander represents a relatively fast turning-over of the Earth’s body relative to the astronomical rotation axis – resulting in migration of the equatorial bulge and the zones of polar flattening, naturally imposing significant stress changes on the crust.
Therefore, polar wandering events may serve as a kind of hydraulic pump forcing pressurized hydrous fluids (from the upper mantle) into the expanding fracture system of the overlying crust; in this process, the crustal shear strength is likely to have been greatly reduced periodically – perhaps by orders of magnitude. Owing to the slow magnetization processes in nature, qualified palaeomagnetic studies would only capture the more significant long-term (‘first order’) polar wander events (cf. Storetvedt, 2016) while a recent interesting study of orientation of ancient cultic objects (Grigoriev, 2015) seems to have been able to define a transient Holocene polar track – representing a time span of only tens of thousands of years. Nevertheless, wrenching deformation of the crust – as demonstrated by palaeomagnetism and supported by GPS velocity studies – would have been episodic like everything else in global tectonophysics.
Peter James suggests that crustal stresses brought about by polar wander events would tectonically be much more effective than inertial forces. I fully agree that polar wander, with its associated global-extent crustal stresses, is likely to be a very important factor in crustal wrenching processes; but in order to explain the overall pattern of crustal torsion it is necessary to bring in also the effects of planetary inertia – for which the regulating tectonic stresses would be towards the equator and westward (for references and discussion, see Storetvedt, 2015). This is in fact the mobilistic principle of my wrench tectonics – originally based on a reconsideration of global palaeomagnetic data and subsequently supported by the overall scheme of estimated crustal GPS velocities.
References
Grigoriev, S.A., 2015. Orientation of ancient cultic objects and polar drift. NCGT Journal, v. 3, no. 4, p. 416-431.
Storetvedt, K.M., 2011. Aspects of Planetary Formation and the Precambrian Earth. NCGT Newsletter, no. 59, p. 60-83.
Storetvedt, K.M., 2013. Global Theories and Standards of Judgement: Knowledge versus Groundless Speculation. NCGT Journal, v. 1, no. 3, p. 55-101.
Storetvedt, K.M., 2015. Inertial forces on the lithosphere. NCGT Journal, v. 3, no. 3, p.259-262.
Storetvedt, K.M., 2016. A Personal History of the Remagnetization Debate: Accounting for a Mobilistic Earth. NCGT Journal, v. 4, no. 2, p. 322-344.
Storetvedt, K.M. & Longhinos, B., 2014. Australasia within the Setting of Global Wrench Tectonics. NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 1, p. 66-96.
Karsten M. Storetvedt
University of Bergen, Norway
karsten.storetvedt@uib.no
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NCGT Journal, v. 1, no. 3, September 2013. www.ncgt.org
56
ESSAY
GLOBAL THEORIES AND STANDARDS OF JUDGMENT:
KNOWLEDGE VERSUS GROUNDLESS SPECULATION
Karsten M. STORETVEDT
Institute of Geophysics, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
karsten.storetvedt@gfi.uib.no
“There is no inductive method which could lead to the fundamental concepts…in error are those theorists who believe that theory comes inductively from experience.” Albert Einstein, in: Philosophy of Science (1934)
“The dispassionate intellect, the open mind, the unprejudiced observer, exists in an exact sense only in a sort of intellectualist folk-lore; states even approaching them cannot be reached without a moral and emotional effort most of us cannot or will not make.”
Wilfred Trotter, in: Instincts of the Herd in Peace and War (1916)
Abstract: In the history of global geology, it has become customary either to ignore problems that do not fit a favoured model, or alternatively to deal with them, in an ad hoc manner, one by one. This means that the geological community has never had the advantage of a functional master theory. The lack of a real overarching plan has clearly hampered a sound development of the Earth sciences, and during the reign of plate tectonics the situation in global geology has perhaps become more chaotic than ever. In an attempt to get out of this deadlock, the search has begun for erecting a new theoretical framework – a functional platform to account for Earth’s diverse expressions, its phenomenological interconnections and development pattern. As a result of these endeavours, a certain ‘battle’ is presently taking place between two incompatible global tectonic proposals: surge tectonics versus wrench tectonics – both being variably linked to planetary rotation. It is concluded that surge tectonics is too narrow in scope and does not have the necessary predictive-explanatory power to serve as a next generation global geological theory.
Keywords: philosophy and sociology of science, requirements of functional theories, global dynamics, surge tectonics,
wrench tectonics
Science as a human enterprise
In a number of books, articles, essays and letters I have, in recent years, taken up a multitude of pressing problems in global geology (Storetvedt 1997; 2003; 2005a, b; 2007; 2009, 2010a, b; 2011a), and in some co-authored works (Storetvedt et al. 2003; Storetvedt and Longhinos 2010, 2011; Storetvedt and Bouzari, 2012) the topical discussion has been greatly extended. In addition to purely geo scientific aspects, I have also paid attention to the diversity of distracting human nature interventions – including intellectual laziness, wishful thinking, blind commitment, and the herd instinct (Storetvedt, 2005a; 2008; 2009; 2011b; 2013a); these non-scientific factors are of particular importance when it comes to discussion of global tectonic theories, which, relative to the mini-theories of specific geological disciplines, have their very special cognitive and heuristic functions. Thus, ‘big picture’ thinking – in general having been acquired through reiteration processes, social relationship or by the powers of indoctrination or persuasion – forms the weakest part of all sciences. For example, ad hoc provisions generally flourish at mini-scale research but rarely on the basic tenets of a particular science with which the majority of scientists is largely unfamiliar. Scientific discussions are often packed with observation statements regarded as verified facts.
Admin:
New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 58, March, 2011
50 DISCUSSIONS
SCIENTIFIC LOGIC BEHIND SURGE TECTONICS HYPOTHESIS
M. Ismail BHAT bhatmi@hotmail.com
Christian SMOOT christiansmoot532@gmail.com
Dong R. CHOI raax@ozemail.com.au
_Recent issues of the NCGT Newsletter carried criticism of the surge tectonics. _The critiques are either half attempts (Karesten Storetvedt) or superficial (Peter James). _While our response to Storetvedt should equally apply to James’ comment, we would however very briefly address his comment separately. _Using this opportunity we shall also ask a question or two to those who advocate oceanization. _And finally, we present a little puzzle for expanding Earth proponents.
Karesten Storetvedt – Criticism off the mark _Storetvedt (NCGT issue no. 57) denounced surge tectonics -- in favor of his wrench tectonics -- as unable to account for geological history. _Our intention here, however, is not to pick holes in wrench tectonics or to defend surge tectonics. _That is for the readers and time. _We would instead argue what we believe is the scientifically most logical basis for enunciation of surge tectonics. _Storetvedt writes “As I see it, the [surge tectonics] hypothesis has ignored too many data that didn't fit the box (just as has been the situation for Wegenerian drift and plate tectonics). _To me many of the arguments sounded strained and constructed for the purpose.” _But, except for one (tropical-subtropical conditions in Antarctica; see below), he neither identifies those “ignored” data nor tell the reader what arguments sound “strained” or “constructed for the purpose.” _Isn’t that truly unscientific? _Anyhow, one can’t be more off the mark. _Surge tectonics isn’t being proposed as a model which is then beefed up and confirmed by data (something Storetvedt seems to prefer); instead it evolves from known data. _Here is the story for those who haven’t read or heard about it. _The evolution of surge tectonics happened through a series of articles by Arthur A. Meyerhoff and his coworkers that began in 1972 and culminated in the first presentation of the concept in 1989 at a conference sponsored by the Smithsonian Institute and Texas Tech University. _The proceedings of the conference, including the surge tectonics concept, were later published in 1992. _In 1995 Journal of Southeast Asian Earth Sciences published its application under the title ‘Surge-tectonic evolution of southeastern Asia: a geohydrodynamics approach’ as a single paper issue. _So, it was not just the enunciation of a concept but its testing as well. _The year 1996 saw the consolidation and publication of the whole idea and its application in book form with one additional topic on magma floods. _The book has just six chapters including a very short one on conclusions.
>_It begins with a brief discussion of former and current concepts of Earth dynamics, including Earth contraction concept, which incidentally provides the basic framework for the surge tectonics.
_Pros and cons of each concept are presented, concluding with why there is need for a new hypothesis. _Next it presents a short description of the history and evolution of techniques for data gathering.
>_It is followed by a long discussion of 29 data sets that remain unexplained by all the current geodynamic models.
>_The spread of these data sets is worth noting: from the smallest (like dip and strike, joints and lineations) through hydrothermal manifestations, linear anorogenic belts, distribution of world evaporites, vortex structures, deep continental roots, morphology and seismic characters of different tectonic elements (rift zones, ocean ridges, island arcs, mountain belts), ocean floor bathymetry, oceanic basement, heat and microearthquake bands, Benioff zones, antipodal arrangement of oceans and continents, continental margin phenomena, seismotomography and convection, magma floods to presence or absence of certain tectonic elements in particular parts of globe (like island arcs and ocean island chains).
_The basic data in all these cases is sourced from published literature, predominantly by plate tectonicists. _Does the whole spectrum look like “constructed for the purpose?” _What is most significant here is the identification of a common denominator that defines all these 29 tectonic elements and how it lays the foundation for a new concept.
>_That common denominator is the presence in the lithosphere of magma channels at various depths rising from asthenosphere across all tectonic elements and across all plate tectonic settings – rift, ridge, subduction zone and mountain belts.
>_The magma channel is shown to be either active or fossilized with characteristic P-wave velocity range of 7.0 to 7.8 km/s. _Next comes the construction of surge tectonics hypothesis.
>_It begins with a discussion of the seismic velocity structure of the Earth and evidence for deep continental roots.
>_Then we have discussion of eleven pieces of geological and geophysical evidence for a differentiated, cooling Earth, one of which also provides a neat explanation for the existence of asthenosphere: >“As the Earth cools, it solidifies from surface downward.
>_Because stress states in cooled [lithosphere] and uncooled [strictosphere, i.e. mantle below asthenosphere] parts are necessarily opposite one another, compression above and tension below, the two parts must be separated by a surface or zone … called the level of no strain.”
>_This is followed by discussion of why the original contraction hypothesis fails as a viable geodynamic concept and how the presence of surge channels in an environment of compressive stresses of lithosphere does away with all the valid objections to the Earth contraction concept.
>_That is to say, the contraction concept is revived in a new form that addresses all the known objections to its original form.
>_Also, evidence for the flow of fluid (magma) under each tectonic element is presented and shown to control and define structural and morphological features of all the data sets.
>_We then have the introduction of surge channel concept.
_In order not to give any impression of ownership to the idea of surge channels and give due credit to where it belongs to, literature review of the concept of surge and related concepts in Earth-dynamic theory is presented.
>_Geotectonic cycle of surge tectonics is also briefly introduced here followed by geophysical and other evidence for the existence of surge channels, their geometry, demonstration of tangential flow, mechanism of eastward flow, their classification, geophysical/ geological criteria for their identification and their examples in different tectonic settings as well as how their variable thickness are controlled are presented and discussed.
>_Next we see application of surge tectonics hypothesis to SE Asia and origin of magma floods.
_Quoting from the surge tectonics book -- Meyerhoff et al. 1996 -- and ignoring references to the cited literature as well as figures/tables, the broad framework of the hypothesis is thus:
>_“Surge tectonics is based on the concept that the lithosphere contains a worldwide network of deformable magma chambers (surge channels) in which partial magma melt is in motion (active surge channels) or was in motion at some time in the past (inactive surge channels)…
>_The presence of surge channels means that all of the compressive stresses in the lithosphere are oriented at right angles to their walls.
>_As this compressive stress increases during a given tectonic cycle, it eventually ruptures the channels that are deformed bilaterally into kobergens [bilaterally deformed foldbelts]…
>_“Surge tectonics involves three separate but interdependent and interacting processes.
>_The first process is the contraction or cooling of the Earth.
>_The second is the lateral flow of fluid, or semifluid, magma through a network of interconnected magma channels in the lithosphere [the cooled outer shell].
>_We call these surge channels.
>_The third process is the Earth’s rotation.
>_This process involves differential lag between the lithosphere and the strictosphere (the hard [still hot but cooling] mantle beneath the asthenosphere and lower crust), and its effects – eastward shifts.”
_No other geodynamic concept touches this aspect. _Again quoting from the surge tectonics book, and ignoring references to the cited literature as well as figures/tables, here is how geotectonic cycle is envisaged under surge tectonics:
>_“The asthenosphere alternately expands (during times of tectonic quiescence) and contracts (during tectogenesis).
>_Thus when the asthenosphere is expanding, the surge channels above it, which are supplied from the asthenosphere, also are expanding; and when tectogenesis takes place, the magma in surge channels is expelled.
>_Tectogenesis is triggered by collapse of the lithosphere into the asthenosphere along 30o-dipping lithosphere Benioff zones.
>_The following is [the] interpretation of the approximate sequence of events during a geotectonic cycle.
>_1. The strictosphere is always contracting, presumably at a steady rate, because the Earth is cooling.
>_2. The overlying lithosphere, because it is already cool, does not contract, but adjusts its basal circumference to the upper surface of the shrinking stictosphere by (1) large-scale thrusting along lithosphere Benioff zones, and (2) normal-type faulting along the strictosphere Benioff zones.
>_These two types of deformation, one compressive and the other tensile, are complementary and together constitute an example of Navier-Coulomb maximum shear stress theory.
>_3. The large-scale thrusting of the lithosphere is not a continuous process, but occurs only when the lithosphere’s underlying dynamic support fails.
>_That support is provided mainly by the softer asthenosphere and frictional resistance along the Benioff fractures.
>_When the weight of the lithosphere overcomes the combined resistance offered by the asthenosphere and Benioff-zone friction, lithosphere collapse ensues.
>_Because this process cannot be perfectly cyclic, it must be episodic; hence tectogenesis is episodic.
>_4. During anorogenic intervals between lithosphere collapses, the asthenosphere volume increases slowly as the lithosphere radius decreases.
>_The increase in asthenosphere volume is accompanied by decompression in the asthenosphere.
>_5. Decompression is accompanied by rising temperature, increased magma generation, and lowered viscosity in the asthenosphere, which gradually weakens during the time intervals between collapses.
>_6. Flow in the asthenosphere is predominantly eastward as a consequence of the Earth’s rotation (Newton’s Third Law of Motion).
>_Magma flow in the surge channels above the asthenosphere also tends to be eastward, although local barriers may divert flow in other directions for short distances.
>_Coriolis force also must exert an important influence on asthenosphere and surge- channel flow, which by its nature is Poiseuille flow.
>_Therefore, the flow at the channel walls is laminar and is accompanied by viscous, or backward drag. The viscous drag produces the swaths of faults, fractures, and fissures (streamlines) that are visible at the surface above all the active tectonic belts. _These bands or swaths are example of Stokes’ Law (one expression of Newton’s Second Law of Motion).
>_7. During lithosphere collapse into the asthenosphere, the continentward (hanging wall) sides of lithosphere Benioff zones override (obduct) the ocean floor.
>_The entire lithosphere buckles, fractures, and founders.
>_Enormous compressive stresses are created in the lithosphere.
>_8. Both the lithosphere and strictosphere fracture along great circles at the depth of the strictoshere’s upper surface.
>_Only two partial great circle fracture zones survive on the Earth today.
>_These include the fairly extensive, highly active Circum-Pacific great circle and the almost defunct Tethys-Mediterranean great circle.
>_9. When the lithosphere collapses into the asthenosphere, the asthenosphere- derived magma in the surge channels begins to surge intensely.
>_Whenever the volume of the magma in the channels exceeds their volumetric capacity, and when compression in the lithosphere exceeds the strength of the lithosphere that directly overlies the surge channels, the surge-channel roofs rupture along the cracks that comprise the faultfracture-fissure system generated in the surge channel by Poiseuille flow before the rupture is bivergent, whether it forms continental rifts, foldbelts, strike-slip zones, or midocean rifts.
>_The fold belts develop into kobergens, some of them alpinotype and some of them germanotype.
>_The tectonic style of a tectonic belt depends mainly on the thickness and strength of the lithosphere overlying it.
>_10. Tectogenesis generally affects an entire tectonic belt and, in fact, may be worldwide, the worldwide early to late Eocene tectogenesis is an example.
>_This indicates that the lithosphere collapse generates tectogenesis and transmits stresses everywhere in a given belt at the same time.
_Thus Pascal’s law is at the core of tectogenesis.
>_Sudden rupture and deformation of surge channels may therefore be likened to what happens when someone stamps a foot on a tube full of tooth paste.
>_The speed or rapidity of tectogenesis, then, is related to the number of fractures participating in the event, as well as to the thickness of lithosphere involved, the size of the surge channels or surge-channel system, the volume and types of magma involved, and related factors.
>_11. Once tectogenesis is completed, another geotectonic cycle or subcycle sets in, commonly within the same tectonic belt.”
>_Summarising, surge tectonics views the Earth as “a very large hydraulic press.
>_Such a press consists of three essential parts – a closed vessel, the liquid in the vessel, and a ram or piston.
>_The collapse of the lithosphere into the asthenosphere is the activating ram or piston of tectogenesis.
>_The asthenosphere and its overlying lithosphere surge channels – which are everywhere connected with the asthenosphere by vertical conduits – are the vessels that enclose the fluid.
>_The fluid is magma generated in the asthenosphere.
>_The magma fills the lithosphere channels.
>_When the piston (lithosphere collapse) suddenly compresses the channels and the underlying asthenosphere, the pressure is transmitted rapidly and essentially simultaneously through the worldwide interconnected surge-channel network, the surge channels burst and the tectogenesis is in full swing.
_The compression everywhere of the asthenosphere compensates for the fact that the basaltic magma of the surge channels is non-Newtonian.” _In conclusion, it is evident that the evolution and enunciation of surge tectonics as a viable geodynamic concept follow the most appropriate scientific approach – from basic data to process to encompassing framework (hypothesis). _And, most importantly, that the concept “draws on well-known laws of physics, especially those related to the laws of motion, gravity, and fluid dynamics,” which are discussed throughout the text and again presented and explained in the appendix. _As to its application to the geological past, that needs working out time-series information about increase in lithospheric thickness. _Having said this, we do not claim surge tectonics to be the panacea for geodynamic problems. _As Donna Meyerhoff-Hull wrote in her editor’s postscript (Meyerhoff et al., 1996), “He encouraged his colleagues to continue thinking about the hypothesis and wanted them to continue to improve it with their own data and idea”. _However, we strongly believe, it addresses nearly every geological and geophysical piece of data currently available. _After the enunciation of surge tectonics in 1992 and his death in 1994, numerous evidence supporting surge tectonics have continually emerged, many of which have been documented in our own platform, NCGT Newsletter: The data mainly come from field geological data, earthquake study, satellite altimetry and seismic tomography. _They provide much clearer picture of surge tectonics.
>_Some salient points are: 1) The outer core-sourced energy possibly in the form of heat, volatiles, or electromagnetics rises to the shallow Earth and transmigrates laterally along major fractured and porous zones – tectonic zones and orogenic belts, which trigger volcanic eruptions and major earthquakes by heating magmas and the upper mantle/lower crust.
>_The well-tested and proven Blot’s energy transmigration phenomena (1976) and Tsunoda’s VE process (2009) testify to the presence of energy migration channels or surge channels.
>_2) Seismo-tomographic profiles across the Pacific Ocean show the correlation between the distribution of Jurassic and Cretaceous basins and that of faster mantle velocity down to 330 km depth, which in turn is underlain by slow mantle (Choi and Vasiliev, 2008; Fig. 1), while the continents are generally underlain by fast mantle through to the core-mantle boundary.
>_These facts are in harmony with the cooling of the shallow mantle model – already cooled lithosphere and cooling strictosphere.
>_Cooling of the Earth surface is also supported by earthquake focal mechanism studies; compressional in the shallow quakes and tensional in intermediate to deep quakes (Suzuki, 2001; Tarakanov, 2005).
>_Figure 1. Mantle profile across the Pacific Ocean from Russia to South America (Choi and Vasiliev, 2008) compiled from tomographic images by Kawakami et al. (1994).
>_Note the coincidence between the Mesozoic basin distribution and that of the fast shallow mantle (to 330 km), suggesting the cause-effect relationship between the cooling of shallow mantle and subsidence.
>_There are numerous indisputable data that the oceanic areas had formed land until Mesozoic.
>_K-K TZ = Korea-Kamchatka Tectonic Zone; T-K TZ = TanLu-Kamchatka Tectonic Zone; A-H line = Aleutian- Hawaiian Islands Line.
_Stroretvedt states that “surprisingly low heat flow, the problem of finding anticipated magma chambers, a nearly complete lack of active volcanism, predominantly low-temperature mineral alteration, and a frequent occurrence of serpentized peridotites” along ocean ridges are “'deadly weapons' against seafloor spreading as well as surge tectonics.” _No, these are not the data that discount either sea floor spreading or surge tectonics; indeed, also not expanding Earth. _It is discomforting to see surge tectonics being clubbed with the concept that it is anti-thesis of. _His statement is based both on denial of evidence and misunderstanding.
>_Denial because, as stated above, there is a whole range of evidence that are marshalled (and cited with full publication details) for the existence of magma channels both under ocean ridges and elsewhere.
>_Also, relevant literature gives data for heat flow exceeding 55 mW/m2; again, this includes ocean ridges.
_No concepts including plate, expanding and surge tectonics advocate 24x7 magma eruption along ocean ridges. _Per year spreading rates given by plate tectonicists (and used also by expansionists) does not mean magma is erupting on daily or even yearly basis. _These are supposed to be averages reduced to annual basis from those that are inferred from dating of magnetic stripes. _As to low temperature mineral alterations, this problem has been discussed by several publications. _We would specifically recommend the paper by W.S.D. Wilcock and J.R. Delaney (1996, Mid-ocean ridge sulfide deposits: Evidence for heat extraction from magma chambers or cracking fronts? Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 145, p. 49- 64). _Although they use plate tectonics framework, it is more important to notice the conditions and processes they envisage remain broadly applicable irrespective of their broader tectonic model. _Yes, ST doesn't talk of evolutionary history but where does it come in the way of its application to that question. _We would challenge Storetvedt to explain just a few of the data sets that we have listed – like, e.g., morphology of the ocean ridges, steamlines, 7.0-7.8 km/s anomalous layer, formation of asthenosphere, geographic distribution of island arcs, angular difference in lithospheric and strictospheric Benioff zones – using his wrench tectonics. _Returning to Storetvedt’s comments. _He laments surge tectonics ignoring “mention of the protracted tropical- subtropical conditions in Antarctica.” _Climatic conditions -- current or past -- are not primarily a direct consequence of Earth dynamics but can be thought of as proxy for certain processes (e.g., erosion) and physiographic features of the Earth. _Therefore, expecting a geodynamic model to be erected on such data is too much of a misplaced expectation.
>_However, for the sake of completeness, it needs be mentioned that in the same year (1996) when book on surge tectonics was published, Meyerhoff et al. (1996) published a monumental piece of work titled ‘Phanerozoic faunal and floral realms of the Earth; the intercalary relations of the Malvinokaffric and Gondwana faunal realms with the Tethyan faunal realm.’
_It was published by the Geological Society of America as GSA Memoir 129.
>_As can be gauged from the title, this publication discusses all available faunal and floral data – including from Antarctica -- to discount any mobilistic concept.
_We have already stated that we do not intend to criticize Storetvedt’s “Wrench Tectonics theory – which [he believes] is an attempt to unify the various facets of Earth history.” _Again, that is for readers and time. _However, before any one worries about testing his theory against Earth’s history, we would draw Storetvedt’s attention to one current, existing fact. _On page 45 of the latest NCGT Newsletter (Issue #57) he presents a 3-D satellite view of “two tectonic 'whirlpool' junctions on the East Pacific Rise”. _Though he doesn’t name the two “whirlpools,” the bigger one is the Easter Island and the smaller one is Juan Fernandez Island, both located on the East Pacific Rise in the eastern part of the central Pacific. _Easter Island’s geological feature has been fairly well researched and discussed. _Without describing their geological or geophysical characters, Storetvedt explains them away as the products of interaction of Easter Fracture Zone and Chile ridge with the East Pacific Rise. _He writes: “It looks as if shear stress has produced a torque ripping off micro- blocks at the two cross-cutting junctions, after which the detached crustal units have been subjected to tectonic rotation.” _(Notice the wishful language!) _You can’t imagine a more simplistic approach when actual facts are taken into consideration. _Figure 2 shows the structural geometry, deduced from side-sonar images and high- pass GEOSAT altimetry data. _Notice the vortical morphology; it shows the Easter Island like an elliptical ring on the ocean bottom. _And notice the feature is enveloped within the two axes of the East Pacific Rise – the “overlapping spreading centers” of plate tectonics.
>_Some plate tectonics literature describes the Easter Island as rotating microplate.
_Some descriptions include: “Enclosing the core of microplate, the inner pseudofaults form a pattern resembling the meteorological symbol for a hurricane” (Larson et al., 1992); and “The result is a feature that appears much like a geological “hurricane” embedded in the crust of the earth” (Bird and Naar, 1994; Leybourne and Adams, 2001).
>_Surge tectonics calls such structures as vortex structure.
_One might say there is so far no apparent conflict with wrench tectonics if Storetvedt’s wrench tectonics can produce the observed structural geometry. _But that ends when you consider a complete gradation in form and style between overlapping spreading centers (incipient vortices of surge tectonics) and fully developed vortices so well documented in the surge tectonics book.
>_More importantly, what would be the wrench tectonics explanation for similar overlapping spreading center-like structure like, e. g. the East African Rift Valley system (Fig. 3) or full-blown vortices like Dasht-i-Lut (Fig. 4) or Banda Sea vortex (Fig. 5)?
_Which of the intersecting fracture zones or ridges or shear belts would be invoked in these cases?
>_Figure 2. Vortex structure in the Easter Island (for source reference see Meyerhoff et al., 1996).
_A typical symbol of atmospheric hurricane in the Earth’s crust.
>_Figure 3. East African rift-valley system (for source reference see Meyerhoff et al., 1996).
_Another example of a continental tectonic vortex along a continental rift geostream.
>_Figure 4. Dasht-i-Lut vortex structure, Iran (for source reference see Meyerhoff et al., 1996), a typical continental vortex along a fold belt.
_The orientation of the structures show that motions beneath the vortex were counterclockwise.
>_Figure 5. Bathymetry (left) and 3-D bathymetric view of Webber Deep in the Banda Sea (Leybourne and Adams, 1999).
_Storetvedt writes: It is my opinion that the only way into the future is through application of well-established facts, primarily based on rock evidence and various other surface data1. _But to go from there to aspects of real understanding we need a functional thought construction – a Theory! _And a theory is an invention, invented for the purpose of explaining the diversity of observations and phenomena – and their interrelationship2. _Therefore, a successful theory of the Earth will automatically establish an extensive phenomenological prediction confirmation sequence, spanning at least a major part of geological history.
>_The ability of such a system must be its capacity to evolve in one direction only – from the characteristics of the Archaean to the features of the modern Earth3 for which uplift of mountain ranges worldwide probably stands out as the most prominent event.
>_Such an irreversible self-organizing development scheme is what my Global Wrench Tectonics is thought to delineate.” (Italics and superscript numbers by us.)
_With reference to the italicized point no. 1, we would say if Storetvedt did not find this approach in surge tectonics, for sure he has either not read it or he is definitely not talking about geological/geophysical facts. _As to point no. 2, well, we have given a sampling of the 29 data sets. _If they do not represent diversity of “observations and phenomena -- and inter- relationship”, again, for sure these very words must mean something unknown to us. _Finally point 3: Let us wait to see how Global Wrench Tectonics explains the question we ask in relation to his “whirlpools” before we worry about how this “Theory” fares in Archaean.
References
Bird, R.T. and Naar, D.F., 1994. Intratransform origins of mid-ocean ridge microplates. Geology, v. 22, p. 987-990
Blot, C., 1976. Volcanisme et séismicité dans les arcs insulaires. Prévision de ces phénomènes. Géophysique, v. 13, Orstom, Paris, 206p.
Choi, D.R. and Vasiliev, B.I., 2008. Geology and tectonic development of the Pacific Ocean. Part 4, Geological
interpretation of seismic tomography. NCGT Newsletter, no. 48, p. 52-60.
Kawakami, S., Fujii, N. and Fukao, Y., 1994. Frontiers of the earth and planetary sciences: A galley of the planetary world. Jour. Geol. Soc. Japan, v. 100, p. I-VIII.
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Meyerhoff, A.A., Taner, I., Morris, A.E., Agocs, W.B., Kamen-Kaye, M., Bhat, M.I., Smoot, N.C. and Choi, D.R.,
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Publishers, Dordrecht. 323p.
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the Earth: The intercalary relations of the Malvinokaffric and Gondwana faunal realms with the Tethyan faunal
realm. Geol. Soc. America Mem. 189, 69p.
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Admin:
NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 1,March 2014. www.ncgt.org 61
SEISMO-ELECTROMAGNETIC ENERGY FLOW OBSERVED IN THE 16 MARCH 2014 M6.7 EARTHQUAKE OFF TARAPACÁ, CHILE
Dong R. CHOI
International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC), Canberra, Australia
dchoi@ievpc.org
- Abstract: The strong M6.7 offshore Tarapacá earthquake in March 2014 was generated by the convergence of two seismo-electromagnetic energies at the junction of two major fault systems. The deep northwestward flow is proven by two precursory intermediate-depth quakes which are linked to the offshore Tarapacá mainshock by Blot’s energy transmigration law. Another energy flow, southward along the continental margin of South America, is verified by the latitude vs year plot of shallow (50 km or less) quakes from 1970 to 2014 (March).
The average speed of the shallow southward-flowing energy along the continental margin is 0.25 km/day (28-year average), whereas the northwestward energy speed (from 128 km to 35 km depths) was an average of 0.34 km/day. The convergence of two energies contributed to enhancing the magnitude of the shallow mainshock (6.7), which was larger than the two foreshocks: 6.4 at 128 km and 6.2 at 214 km. The increased magnitude of shallow mainshocks as compared to deeper foreshocks is observed in many of the past major quakes, which will help forecast future catastrophic earthquakes.
- Keywords: Offshore Tarapacá earthquake, energy transmigration, convergence and flow, surge tectonics
- Introduction
A conspicuous anomaly in total electron content (TEC) appeared in the coastal area of northern Chile in early March 2014 off Tarapacá, Chile. Based on IEVPC’s experience, we considered it to indicate an imminent strong earthquake. The author immediately examined other data: outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), sea surface temperature (SST), cloud images, geology, and earthquake archives. He also conducted Blot’s energy transmigration analysis (Blot, 1976; Grover, 1999) for two intermediate-depth earthquakes that occurred in the southeast of the Tarapacá area in 2009 and 2011. The results of the analysis convinced him of the imminence of a strong quake north of Antofagasta. Because the expected magnitude was around 6.4, which is below the threshold of what IVEPC classifies as a catastrophic geophysical event (CGE, M7.0 or greater), he notified only his IEVPC associates on 3 March without any public announcement.
- As expected, an M6.7 (originally 7.0) mainshock occurred off Tarapacá, about 400 km north of Antofagasta, on 16 March, 13 days after the announcement. The author’s prediction proved to be of almost pinpoint accuracy in terms of epicentre, time and magnitude. A post-mortem analysis of the quake revealed that two energy flows had converged in the offshore Tarapacá area where two major fracture systems meet. Energy flow is a particularly important concept when considering earthquake formation mechanisms and in earthquake prediction. The author briefly describes here some of the new findings, focusing on the energy flow observed in this particular quake.
- 2.Precursory signals and fracture systems
- Before discussing energy flow, I will first summarize some of the precursory signals that appeared prior to the Tarapacá mainshock (see Fig. 1). The OLR trend shows a clear NW-SE trending linear high anomaly, 10-30 W/m2 above average, from 2 to 8 March. The linear trend coincides with a deep fracture zone where two precursory shocks occurred in 2009 and 2011. The fracture zone extends northward into the ocean floor where a deep trench develops.
- Figure 1. Seismo-tectonic map (top), total electron content (lower right), sea surface temperature anomaly (middle left) and outgoing longwave radiation anomaly (bottom left). Anomalies are detected in total electron content and outgoing longwave radiation, but none in sea surface temperature. The offshore Tarapacá quake occurred at the junction of two fault systems. Note two energy flows converging at the mainshock.
- The most outstanding anomaly signal among others is seen in the TEC pattern. It appeared in late February, became conspicuous in early March, peaked on 10 to 11 March, then slightly decreased from 13 to 15 March, before the mainshock on 16 March.
- Sea surface temperature (SST) did not show any particular anomalies during the entire incubation period. This is the stark contrast with other large quakes such as the November 2012 Myanmar quake (NCGT Newsletter no. 65, Editorial, p. 2-4).
Clear earthquake clouds were observed on satellite images (Dundee Satellite Receiving Station; http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/geobrowse/geobrowse.php) on 28 January at 1200 hrs from the nearby trench, 47 days prior to the mainshock. Some limited energy release features are observed beginning in early February, about one month to 40 days prior to the mainshock, mainly from the trench area. On the whole, however, relatively little activity was seen on the satellite images from the region.
- 3. Energy flow
- Two energy flow channels were identified in this prediction exercise. One of them is the northwestward deep flow along a deep-seated fracture system, and the second is a southward flow in the shallow Earth along the continental margin. The former is confirmed by three strong earthquakes lying on a NW-SE fault line: no. 1, M6.2 on 29 Nov. 2009 at 214 km depth; no. 2, M6.4 on 20 June 2011 at 128 km; and no. 3, main shallow shock on 16 March, M6.7 at 35 km (see Fig. 1). This fault is obviously a deep fault zone with its northern extension reaching the Chile Trench. The author (Choi, 2005, fig. 21) recognized a NW-SE trending structural high running through Antofagasta based on various data sources. The NW-SE fault in question is situated on the northern wing of this basement high.
- These three quakes are linked by the energy transmigration (ET) formula (Fig. 2). According to the formula, applied from Nos. 1 to 2, the No. 2 quake shows an approximately seven-month delay in its occurrence. This might be the result of inaccuracies in the depth and locality of quakes, a longer incubation time at the trap before release, or a longer travel distance due to the complex fault system through which the energy travels. On the other hand, the flow from No. 2 to No. 1 occurred almost exactly in conformity with the ET formula.
- The average speed from No. 1 (214 km depth) to No. 2 (128 km depth) quakes is 0.41 km/day, and from No. 2 to No. 3 (from 128 km to 35 km depth) 0.36 km/day.
The shallow southbound flow was calculated by plotting a latitude vs year diagram for M7+ shallow (50 km or shallower) quakes from 1970 to 2014 (Fig. 2). The average speed is 0.25 km/day. A similar trend is also seen in the M6.0+ quake trend in the same area. The energy flow can be disrupted by local energy trap structures which slow down the flow speed, but on the whole, the energy movement indicated in the shift of major quakes with time in a broad corridor is unmistakably traceable. The author also found the same fact in California earthquake patterns (Choi et al., in preparation). Tsunoda (2011) and Tsunoda et al. (2013) described the systematic northward energy flow along the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge to Japan. These observations confirm that constant energy movement is taking place under active tectonic belts, as proposed by surge tectonics (Meyerhoff et al., 1996).
64 NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 1,March 2014. www.ncgt.org
- Figure 2. Latitude vs year plot of M7+ shallow quakes, 50 km or less. An overall southward flow is observed.
- 4. Discussion
- The most significant discovery during the analysis of the offshore Tarapacá quake is the convergence of two energy flows, and their enhancing effect on magnitude. Energy convergence and its magnitude-enhancing effect have been seen in many catastrophic earthquakes, including the 2004 Boxing Day earthquake in Sumatra (Blot and Choi, 2004) and the Great East Japan (Tohoku) Earthquake in March 2011 (Choi, 2011), to name only two. The same phenomenon was observed in the present offshore Tarapacá quake too. In this regard, Grover’s remark (1998) is noteworthy:
“Deep-focus shocks of magnitude 6+ appear to engender great earthquakes of magnitude 7+ and 8+ and accompanying seismic crises when their ‘phenomena’ converge….with convergence even quite small magnitude shocks could be boosted to produce much higher magnitude.”
- We are currently collating energy-transmigration and speed data for various geological and geographic settings. The general trend was discussed in Tsunoda et al. (2013). A comprehensive updated report will be published in the near future.
- 5. Conclusions
- This note presented observations on two energy flow patterns and their convergence, which generated a strong shock off Tarapacá, Chile, in March 2014. This convergence generated a quake of greater magnitude than the two deeper foreshocks that occurred five and three years earlier.
- The Tarapacá quake was predicted 13 days in advance with almost pinpoint accuracy. The prediction was based solely on publicly available data without local monitoring stations. This is mainly thanks to Blot’s ET concept, as well as the IEVPC’s comprehensive data analysis capability, augmented by accumulated know-how and acumen that allow strong quakes to be detected even several years before they occur, and based on an understanding of the significance of various short-term signals. If we had had local monitoring stations, the prediction would have been much more precise and accurate.
- Acknowledgements: The author thanks Fumio Tsunoda for his constructive comments on the manuscript, and other IEVPC associates who contributed to a better understanding of precursory signals. This paper is an outcome of IEVPC’s collective effort. The author also thanks David Pratt for English editing.
- References cited
Blot, C., 1976. Volcanisme et sismicité dans les arcs insulaires. Prévision de ces phénomènes. Géophysique,
v. 13, Orstom, Paris, 206p.
Blot, C. and Choi, D.R., 2004. Recent devastating earthquakes in Japan and Indonesia viewed from the seismic
energy transmigration concept. NCGT Newsletter, no. 33, p. 3-12.
Choi, D.R., 2005. Deep earthquakes and deep-seated tectonic zones: A new interpretation of the Wadati-Benioff
zone. Boll. Soc. Geol. It., vol. spec. 5, p. 79-118.
Choi, D.R., 2010. Blot’s energy transmigration concept applied for forecasting shallow earthquakes; a swarm of
strong deep earthquake in the northern Celebes Sea in July 2010. NCGT Newsletter, no. 56, p. 75-85.
Choi, D.R., 2011. Geological analysis of the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011. NCGT Newsletter,
no. 59, p. 55-68.
Grover, J.C., 1998. Volcanic eruptions and great earthquakes. Advanced warning techniques to master the
deadly science. CopyRight Publishing Co. Pty Ltd., Brisbane. 272p.
Meyerhoff, A.A., Taner, I., Morris, A.E.L., Agocs, W.B., Kamen-Kaye, M., Bhat, M.I., Smoot, N.C. and Choi,
D.R. (Ed., Meyherhoff-Hull, D.), 1996. Surge tectonics: a new hypothesis of global geodynamics. Kluwer
Academic Publishers, 323p.
Tsunoda, F., 2011. The March 2011 Great Offshore Tohoku-Pacific Earthquake from the perspective of the VE
process. NCGT Newsletter, no. 59, p. 69-77.
Tsunoda, F., Choi, D.R. and Kawabe, T., 2013. Thermal energy transmigration and fluctuation. NCGT
Journal, v. 1, no. 2, p. 65-80.
- Postscript: When the new NCGT issue including this paper was just about to be aired, a gigantic M8.0 earthquake hit the same area on 1 April, 2014 with a small tsunami. This is the mainshock, and the 16 March M6.7 quake described in this article is now considered the foreshock. They occurred 15 days apart. After the 16 March foreshock, TEC remained high, SST became high from the late March, but OLR went low.
- The huge magnitude of the mainshock is considered the combined effect of energy convergence and a large trap structure (Precambrian structural high occupying the south of the NW-SE deep fault system). The southward flowing energy along the continental margin had been trapped in this structure, and stored a huge energy. Another energy flow arrived from the southeast along the deep fault played a role as a trigger. We have seen the similar pattern in the March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Energy flow, trap structure, and energy convergence are the keys to understand the mechanism of gigantic earthquakes like the present off Tarapacá quake.
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Re: MF 2/24 NuMadPapr « Reply #4 on: March 01, 2017, 03:38:28 pm »
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4. Paper by Dr. Dong Choi and Mr. John L. Casey
New Madrid Seismic Zone, central USA:
The great 1811-12 earthquakes, their relationship to solar cycles,
and tectonic settings
Dong R. CHOI
Raax Australia Pty Ltd. Dong.Choi@raax.com.au; www.raax.com.au
International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center. dchoi@ievpc.org; www.ievpc.org
John L. CASEY
Space and Science Research Corporation, mail@spaceandscience.net; www.spaceandscience.net
International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center, jcasey@ievpc.org; www.ievpc.org
Abstract: The 1811-1812 New Madrid series of earthquakes were the largest in magnitude (estimated to be M8.0 or greater) in the continental North America in the history. The quakes occurred in the midst of Dalton Solar Minimum (1793-1830). Other major historic earthquakes in the same region also occurred during major solar minimums, or “solar hibernations.” From a tectonic viewpoint, the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is situated on the axis of the N-S American Geanticline or Super Anticline which is Archean in origin. It has been subject to repeated magmatic and tectonic activities in Proterozoic and Phanerozoic – the Caribbean dome (now oceanized to form the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) has been the site for rising thermal energy from the outer core since the Mesozoic. Energy transmigrates northward along the anticlinal axis (or surge channel) and is trapped at the embayment bounded by less permeable Precambrian-Paleozoic basement highs in the north of the New Madrid area. The arrival of a major, prolonged solar low period or “hibernation” in the coming 30 years, which are considered comparable to the Dalton or even Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), increases the likelihood of repeating the 1811-12 class seismic events. Heightened awareness, monitoring of precursory signals, and disaster mitigation planning are required.
Keywords: 1811-12 New Madrid Earthquakes, Dalton Minimum, solar hibernation, N-S American Super Anticline, surge channel, seismic energy transmigration, earthquake-solar cycle anti-correlation
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Introduction
The New Madrid area, mid-Mississippi River, central United State, was rocked by a spate of powerful earthquakes from 1811 to 1812 (Fig. 1). According to the USGS records, there were three main shocks, M7.5, 7.3 and 7.5, on 16 December 1811, 23 January 1812, and 7 February 1812, respectively, with a major aftershock M7.0 on the first day (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1811-1812.php). Other researchers, such as Nuttli (1987) listed six M7.0+ quakes that include two M8.0+ earthquakes. Of them, two largest quakes were considered the greatest earthquakes in continental North America (Johnston and Schweig, 1996).
The sequence of the great earthquakes in the NMSZ has a unique attribute – it occurred in the middle of a major solar low period, Dalton Minimum, 1793 to 1830 (Fig. 2). This prompted the authors to study seismic history of the NMSZ and their relation to solar cycles, together with geological settings of the surrounding region. The rationales of this study are, 1) the arrival of a prolonged solar low period as advocated by Casey (2008, 2012 and 2014), and 2) the well-established reversed correlation between the solar activity cycle and earthquake energy (Choi and Maslov, 2010), and 3) new interpretation of geological structure of the region and seismic energy transmigration mechanism in the Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico-Mississippi River (Choi, 2013; Choi, 2014; Choi et al., 2014).
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Fig. 1. Map of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12. Base map cited from Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc. (http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/1421133/New-Madrid-earthquakes-of-1811-12). Wabash Valley Seismic Zone is added.
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Seismic activity in the NMSZ and solar cycles
Historic records show that the New Madrid region has been subject to repeated seismic activities. Based on artifacts found buried by sand blow deposits and from carbon-14 studies, previous large earthquakes like those of 1811-1812 appear to have happened around 4800BC, 3500BC, 2350 BC, AD300, AD900 and AD1450. In addition, the first known written record of an earthquake felt in the New Madrid Seismic Zone occurred on Christmas Day of 1699. An M6.6 earthquake in 1895 has also been registered (Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone).
Most of the years listed above belong to solar low periods (Figs. 2 and 3): The years 1811-1812 is in the midst of a major solar low period, Dalton Minimum. The year 1699 sits in another major solar low period, Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715. AD1450 corresponds to the lowering period of Spörer Minimum, and another one in 1895, centennial low cycle (1885-1915; Casey, 2008; Fig. 2).
Importantly, all major Earthquakes in the NMSZ since 1400 AD have occurred during these solar low points or solar hibernations.
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Fig. 2. Solar cycle and world volcanic/seismic activities. All of the NMSZ quakes occurred around the middle of the solar low periods. Cited from Choi and Tsunoda, 2011 and Choi, 2013b.
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Fig. 3. History of New Madrid earthquakes compared to solar minimums or “solar hibernations” from 1400-1950 AD. Solar activity deduced from C14 proxy variation. The years of major New Madrid earthquakes are shown in red stars with dates. Source: Casey, Data: Reimar et al., INTCAL04.
The NMSZ quakes and solar cycles indicate their reversed correlation. The anti-correlation between solar cycles and seismic/volcanic activities has been well established by the senior author of this paper with co-workers (Fig. 4; Choi and Maslov, 2010; Choi and Tsunoda, 2011). Casey (2010) also noted that the catastrophic volcanic eruptions had taken place during the solar low periods.
Fig. 4. Anti-correlation between the solar and earthquake cycles (Choi and Maslov, 2010).
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The cause of this anti-correlation awaits further study. One of the feasible explanations was presented by Gregori (2002) who attributed to the Earth’s core being a leaky capacitor or a battery; when solar activity is high, the Earth’s core is charged, whereas when the Sun’s activity is in low phase, the core in turn discharges energy.
Discussion
1) Geological structures responsible for the NMSZ earthquakes
The earthquakes occurred in the NMSZ come from the unique tectonic settings. It is strongly related to the global-scale geological structure; North-South American Geanticline or Super Anticline that runs from South America, via the Caribbean and Mississippi Valley, to the Canadian Shield (Choi, 2013; Figs. 5 and 6). It is a fundamental geological structure formed in the early stage of the Earth’s formation – in Archean. There is another antipodal super anticline that extends from SW Pacific, via SE Asia and South China, to Siberia. These anticlinal structures have influenced the subsequent development of the Earth by repeated magmatic and tectonic activities throughout the Phanerozoic, especially since Mesozoic.
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Fig. 5. Earth’s fundamental structures; two antipodal super anticlines (Choi, 2013a). Note that the Caribbean Sea and the Mississippi Valley are situated on the axis of the anticline. Base map, World magnetic anomaly map, by Korhonen et al., 2007.
In his 2010 and 2014 papers, the senior author argued the origin of the Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico, which developed in the axial part of the anticline and formed the Caribbean dome; the crust in the site where energy rose from the outer core has been oceanized since Mesozoic. The initial basin formation however may go back to Paleozoic time (Pratch, 2008 and 2010). The axial area, being highly fractured and permeable, became a channel of energy flow, or surge channel (Meyerhoff et al., 1996). The thermal seismic energy, derived from the outer core through the Caribbean dome and transmigrated along the surge channel developed under the Mississippi Valley, is responsible for the NMSZ earthquakes (Fig. 6). This assertion is supported by the fact that, along the Pacific coast of Central America, the seismo-volcanic energy which was originated from the deep Caribbean was found to transmigrate northward during the solar low cycles but southward during the rising cycles (Choi, 2014). The energy from the outer core was stronger during the time of solar low phase, as evidenced by the well-established solar cycle-earthquake anti-correlation (Fig. 4).
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Fig. 6. N-S American Geanticline, the NMSZ and deep structure of the North America represented by Precambrian structures (Kosygin et al., 1970). Energy flow direction along the N-S American Geanticlinal axis from Choi (2014), and for California-Mexico from Choi et al. (2014). Note the prevailing NE-SW deep structural trends which seemingly continue into the Pacific Ocean.
A geological map, Fig. 7, well illustrates a Mesozoic embayment developed along the Mississippi Valley. The NMSZ area is the northern end of the Mesozoic basin that covers the present Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. The NMSZ region is surrounded by older, less permeable, Precambrian-Paleozoic rocks – which form a trap structure for thermal seismic energy in the form of liquid and gas. The trap structures were controlled by deep fault systems, which are NE-SW and NW-SE in direction (Johnson and Schweig, 1996).
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3) Arrival of a major, prolonged, solar low period, or solar hibernation.
The correlation of major earthquakes and solar activity, while relatively recently discussed, is nonetheless one of the strongest in terms of climate change and geophysical associations. The initial paper (Casey, 2008) on the regular pattern of climate oscillations linked to solar activity using the Relational Cycle Theory (RC Theory) has demonstrated itself to be among the most successful in climate prediction underscoring the basic reliability of the theory and its associated seven elements of climate change. Subsequently (Casey, 2010) in a preliminary paper, proposed the connection between the RC Theory and major earthquakes and volcanic activity. Others noted above (Choi, Maslov, et al.), have also found the strong relationship between solar activity lows and increased seismic and volcanic activities.
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Fig. 7. Geologic map by Jatskevich et al. (2000) superimposed by tectonic elements and the NMSZ which is located at the northern end of the Mesozoic-Paleogene basin (labelled as K, K1, K2 and ).
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Conclusions
This study revealed several important factual data regarding the strong earthquakes in the NMSZ and their relation to solar cycle. It also presented new interpretation of tectonic settings of the region. They are summarized as follows:
1. The NMSZ developed on the major Precambrian-origin geanticlinal axis where magmatic, thermal, and tectonic activities have been concentrated, particularly since Mesozoic when the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have started to form. This activity is still continuing today.
2. The historic record clearly shows that large seismic events in the NMSZ have occurred during the Sun’s inactive periods. The sequence of 1811-12 quakes is one of them.
3. In the light of the now confirmed start of a prolonged, solar hibernation for the coming 30 years or so, which are comparable to Dalton Minimum or worst case, a Maunder Minimum (“Little Ice Age”), a repeat of the 1811-12 earthquakes should be expected.
4. The window of highest risk for another major New Madrid zone earthquake is between 2017 and 2038.
5. Planning for a repeat of the 1811-1812 series of earthquakes that devastated the region back then should begin immediately. Considerations should include:
a. A US nationwide plan is required based on one or more M8.0+ earthquakes in the NMSZ on the assumption that substantial regional loss of life and massive infrastructure damage will take place on a scale never before witnessed in the USA.
b. This plan should include heightened levels of public education, monitoring of the seismic precursory signals, federal, state and local emergency management exercises and damage mitigation where practicable.
c. Planning should address the real possibility of complete loss of major ground and air
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transportation nodes and routes including substantial long term damage to airport facilities and runways and interstate and city highway systems especially across the Mississippi River.
d. Planning should also include the assumption that major aftershocks will prevent meaningful rebuilding of permanent structures over several months to a year.
e. Should a repeat of a series of quakes take place similar to the 1811-1812 events or even a repeat of the 1895 M6.6 earthquake, the power grid in the central Mississippi region may be unavailable for essential needs of radio and TV communications, emergency management, search and rescue etc for several months to a half year or more.
f. In the case where there may be NMSZ nuclear facilities not designed to withstand a series of M7.5 to M8.0+ earthquakes, a new added risk may exist. All nuclear facilities must be reviewed (if not already done so) to insure they and their back-up power systems for coolant systems etc., can withstand a worst case series of major quakes. Failure to do so could result in multiple instances of the March 11, 2011 Japanese, Fukushima nuclear reactor style catastrophes in the middle of the United States. This could directly affect the safety of all citizens east of the central Mississippi River subject to prevailing winds during the time of the year such a scenario might happen.
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